Weekly Bullish Foundation
Last week delivered a decisive breakout from a small falling channel, forming a powerful weekly bullish engulfing candle that closed near the top of the $56.41-$63.03 range. This strong weekly structure reflects real buyer commitment, and with only one leg up completed so far, the setup strongly favors a second leg higher once the current pullback — now in progress — finds a base.
Inside Week Formation
This week has traded entirely within last week’s range, setting up a classic inside week unless prices push above $63.03 before the week ends. A close in the top half of today’s range would form a potential bull hammer right at the confluence of the 10-day and 20-day averages, near the 50% retracement zone — a textbook reversal setup. A rally above today’s high would trigger a daily breakout, with added conviction on a move above Wednesday’s $61.37 high.
Upside Targets Defined
The recent lower swing high at $63.03 (B) stalled at the 50-day average. That line, now at $62.37 and still falling slightly, stands as the first short-term upside target. A clean break above it would open the door to retest $63.03, and if that level gives way, it signals continuation of a measured move starting from today’s low — matching the length of last week’s initial advance, assuming $59.96 holds as the pullback bottom.
Measured Move Potential
Two ABCD patterns point to higher levels: a 78.6% harmonic target at $65.17, followed by the prior swing high at $66.77. A rally through $66.77 would trigger a full bullish reversal of the decline from June’s $78.44 peak, confirming a shift in momentum and stronger underlying demand.
Outlook
The close above $59.96 is critical. A move above $61.37 fuels a push to $62.37, while a break lower risks retesting support. The inside week and hammer formation favor bulls if $63.03 clears. Watch for 50-day confirmation — $65.17 and $66.77 follow on sustained strength. Today’s defense at support keeps the second-leg up scenario alive.
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