At the same time, OPEC+ fell 500,000 barrels per day short of its pledged production increases between April and August. This shortfall—roughly 0.5% of global oil demand—has sustained upward pressure on prices. With most non-core producers operating at or near capacity, the group’s ability to respond with additional supply remains constrained.
Kurdistan Crude Return Could Limit Gains — But Not Reverse Trend
Some bearish relief may come from the partial return of Kurdish crude. Iraq’s semi-autonomous region is poised to resume exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, with initial volumes expected around 180,000–190,000 barrels per day. However, ongoing payment disputes are delaying full-scale shipments, and at least one major producer has held back exports.
Unless volumes ramp quickly, the restart is unlikely to offset the broader supply-side constraints. For now, the return of some Kurdish barrels serves more as a cap on excessive upside than a driver of reversal.
Fed Caution and Strong GDP Data Slow Rate-Cut Momentum
On the macro front, a hotter-than-expected U.S. GDP revision to 3.8% has tempered expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts. While the Fed delivered a 25-basis-point cut last week, the strength in economic data may delay further easing.
A slower rate-cut path could support the U.S. dollar and weigh modestly on crude, but so far, these factors remain secondary to physical supply constraints.
