This week’s rally was ignited by back-to-back recoveries of the 200-day moving average at $63.05 and the 50-day moving average at $63.71. The upside momentum then pushed crude past a long-term pivot at $64.21—also a swing top—which flipped the short-term trend to bullish on the daily swing chart.
With this shift, the market opened the door to further gains, targeting resistance at a pivot level of $65.06, a main top at $65.68, and another pivot at $65.83. A sustained break above $65.83 could act as a technical trigger for another leg higher.
On the downside, swing chart support is seen at $61.61, $61.34, $61.10 and $60.77. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages now serve as critical support levels, and a breakdown below them would likely shift sentiment back toward the bears.
The broader market tone turned cautious following back-to-back down days in U.S. equities and remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell warning about stretched asset valuations. These factors added pressure to crude prices, as risk appetite waned across asset classes.
“We have a generally risk-off market,” noted UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Jorge Montepeque of Onyx Capital Group added that Powell’s comments further unsettled sentiment, spilling over into crude.
Supply-side pressure returns as Kurdistan flows poised to resume
Bearish undertones were reinforced by growing expectations that Kurdish oil flows may resume shortly. Eight oil companies have reached an agreement with Iraq’s federal and Kurdish regional governments, paving the way for resumed exports.
