The market caught a slight bid after White House trade adviser Peter Navarro took a swing at India for buying Russian crude, arguing those flows are effectively financing Moscow’s war effort. That’s rekindled some of the old supply fear trade, and it’s probably what’s supporting crude here.
Navarro’s quote—calling India a “global clearinghouse” for Russian oil—was sharp enough to stir up fresh concern that energy markets are still very much at the mercy of political brinksmanship.
Trump’s Position on Ukraine Puts Pressure on Sentiment
The market’s also got an eye on today’s meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, which could mark a turning point in peace efforts—or not. Trump has doubled down on a peace-first strategy that leans toward concessions to Moscow, including giving up on Crimea and NATO aspirations. If that view gains traction, traders may start pricing in a more stable Europe, and that could cap oil’s upside. But we’re not there yet.
Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank put it well: the market hasn’t priced in a full “peace dividend.” So while that risk is lurking, prices remain vulnerable to geopolitical twists—especially since speculators are now holding a rare net short position in WTI, per latest CFTC data. That’s notable. If we get a headline that catches the market off guard, the squeeze potential is real.
