OPEC+ Set to Finalize July Output — Traders Brace for Supply Clues
All eyes are on OPEC+ as the group prepares to finalize production quotas for July. Sources indicate that a baseline increase of 411,000 barrels per day is on the table, although this has yet to be confirmed. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated Monday that discussions on raising output have not yet occurred, signaling potential pushback from some members.
Adding to the uncertainty, OPEC+ will hold its ministerial meeting online Tuesday, while the subgroup of eight members implementing voluntary cuts is now expected to meet a day earlier than scheduled, on May 31. Traders are watching closely to see if this subgroup softens its stance on output restraint, which could flood the market with additional barrels.
Iran Sanctions Risk Keeps Bullish Undercurrent Alive
In the background, geopolitical risks remain supportive for oil. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian suggested Monday that Iran could withstand a collapse in nuclear talks with the U.S., implying that sanctions—and thus limited Iranian exports—will likely persist. Continued restrictions on Iranian crude supply could offer a floor to prices amid broader uncertainty.
