Women members of Iran’s Red Crescent society stand near smoke plumes from an ongoing fire following an overnight airstrike on the Shahran oil refinery in northwestern Tehran on March 8, 2026.
– | Afp | Getty Images
Analysts warned on Monday that there was no precedent for the surging price of oil, as the Middle East crisis deepens fears of prolonged production shut-ins and disruption to shipments through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices were on track for their biggest-ever jump in a single day on Monday, before significantly paring gains, following a fresh wave of U.S. and Israeli strikes across Iran over the weekend. Oil depots were among the targets.
International benchmark Brent crude futures with May delivery traded 12.8% higher at $104.53 per barrel on Monday morning, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with April delivery were last seen nearly 12% higher at $101.76.
Brent futures had climbed as high as $119.5 per barrel earlier in the trading day, while WTI hit a session high of $119.48.
Neil Atkinson, former head of oil at the International Energy Agency, said the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is something energy markets had never seen before. Unless something changes very soon “we are in a potentially game-changing and unprecedented energy crisis,” he told CNBC on Monday.
Countries across the oil-rich Middle East region have started to scale back crude output. Iraq and Kuwait have already begun to shut-in production, with analysts warning that the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia may also be vulnerable if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a sustained period.
“Though there are oil stocks around the world, the point is that if this closure of the Strait persists, those oil stocks if they are deployed will be depleted and we are going to be in a situation where, with the oil production actually shut in, in Iraq and possibly in Kuwait and maybe even in time in Saudi Arabia, that we are going to be in a crisis the likes of which we have never seen before,” Atkinson told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”
Brent crude futures over one day.
Asked what this could mean for oil prices, Atkinson replied: “Sorry, we are getting into the realms of educated guesswork here. I mean, there is no precedent for this. The sky is the limit.”
Typically, about 20% of the world’s oil and gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz, but shipping traffic has all but halted through this key maritime corridor since the war started.
G7 emergency meeting
Oil prices came off their session highs on Monday shortly after the Financial Times reported that finance ministers from G7 economies would hold an emergency meeting on Monday to discuss a possible joint release of petroleum from reserves coordinated by the IEA.
The U.K.’s Treasury and French government confirmed to CNBC that the call would take place on Monday.
Fire breaks out at the Shahran oil depot after U.S. and Israeli attacks, leaving numerous fuel tankers and vehicles in the area unusable in Tehran, Iran, on March 8, 2026.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
Tyler Goodspeed, chief economist at ExxonMobil, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday that it had been “consensus last week, and to a certain extent still today,” that everyone but Russia had “an interest in normal traffic resuming through the Strait of Hormuz.”
He added the consensus had been that there was “abundant oil on the water and some strategic reserves to cover any short-term gap.” Goodspeed said he was skeptical of this view as the conflict enters its second week.
“When I think of the probability distribution of possible outcomes here, it seems to me there are many more scenarios, and more probable scenarios, in which the strait remains effectively closed harder for longer than there are scenarios in which normal traffic resumes,” Goodspeed said.
Production shut-ins
Analysts at Societe Generale, meanwhile, warned that prolonged production shut-ins from Middle East countries “materially increase” the risk of restart complications.
“The UAE is likely the next producer at risk of shutting in output, potentially within the next five to seven days,” the analysts said in a research note published Monday.
“Qatar is also vulnerable, though its oil volumes are modest relative to its LNG exposure. Saudi Arabia faces less immediate risk but shut ins would become plausible if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a further two to three weeks,” they added.
— CNBC’s Holly Ellyatt contributed to this report.
