A cargo ship is pictured off coast city of Fujairah, in the Strait of Hormuz in the northern Emirate on February 25, 2026.
Giuseppe Cacace | Afp | Getty Images
Crude oil prices are expected to jump when trading opens Sunday evening, as market participants fear war between the U.S. and Iran will spiral out of control and lead to a major supply disruption.
The massive wave of airstrikes launched by the U.S. and Israel against Iran have killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top leaders in the Islamic Republic. See the latest developments here.
Kalshi prediction markets currently see a 79% likelihood that U.S. crude oil hits at least $73 per barrel or more. U.S. crude closed at $67.02 per barrel on Friday, having run up 17% so far this year in anticipation of a possible Iran attack. Energy futures begin trading at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, could see even bigger gains. Brent futures closed Friday at $73.21 a barrel on Friday, up 20% so far this year.
It is unclear who is now governing the fourth-largest oil producer in OPEC. How the oil market ultimately reacts will depend on whether the war leads to a prolonged disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the most important chokepoint in the world for the global oil trade.
Crude oil futures, YTD
President Donald Trump said Sunday that Iran wants to talk and he has agreed to do so, leaving open the possibility that there might be a path to de-escalation that avoids a big, prolonged disruption.
“They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them,” Trump told The Atlantic on Sunday. The president told CNBC that U.S. military operations in Iran are “ahead of schedule.”
But tanker traffic through the Strait has already effectively come to a halt as shipping companies take precautionary measures, according to consulting firm Rystad Energy. Global benchmark Brent crude oil futures could spike by $20 when trading opens, the firm forecast Saturday.
“Tankers are starting to build by the Strait of Hormuz, but nothing seems to be going through at the moment – tankers are definitely spooked,” said Matt Smith, oil analyst at energy consulting firm Kpler.
More than 14 million barrels per day passed through the Strait on average in 2025, or about a third of the world’s total seaborne crude exports, according to Kpler data. About three-quarters of those exports go to China, India, Japan and South Korea, according to the firm.
Other analysts see a more modest jump depending on how the conflict develops. Prices should rise by at least $3 to $5 per barrel when trading starts, said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
The worst-case scenario is an attack by Iran on Saudi oil infrastrucure followed by a complete closure of the Strait, Lipow said Sunday. Oil prices would jump by $10 to $20 in this scenario, the analyst said, which he put at a 33% likelihood.
Brent crude oil futures, YTD
Barclays said Brent could hit $100 per barrel when trading starts as the market grapples the threat of a potential supply disruption.
“How this ends is extremely uncertain at this point but in the meantime oil markets will have to face their worst fears,” Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh told clients in a note Saturday. “The potential effect on oil markets is hard to overstate.”
