Oil prices settled higher on Friday as some investors covered short positions ahead of the three-day Martin Luther King holiday weekend in the US and lingering worries about a possible US military strike against Iran. Brent crude settled at $64.13 a barrel up 37 cents or 0.58 per cent. US West Texas Intermediate finished at $59.44 a barrel up 25 cents, or 0.42 per cent. Most of Friday’s gains seemed to be due to buying supply ahead of the long weekend, said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital LLC. “With that carrier strike group making the move to the (Persian) Gulf, it doesn’t seem likely anything will happen soon,” Flynn said.
The US Navy’s aircraft carrier USS. Abraham Lincoln was expected to arrive in the Persian Gulf next week after operating in the South China Sea.
Weighing against those fears are potential supply increases from Venezuela, said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. “The supply from Venezuela has not become the tidal wave that was expected,” Flynn said. “Buying today seems to be people not wanting to be caught short over the long weekend.” Both benchmarks hit multi-month highs this week after protests flared up in Iran and US President Donald Trump signalled the potential for military strikes, but lost over 4 per cent on Thursday as Trump said Tehran’s crackdown on the protesters was easing, allaying concerns of possible military action that could disrupt oil supplies.
“Above all, there are worries about a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran in the event of an escalation, through which around a quarter of seaborne oil supplies flow,” Commerzbank analysts said in a note. “Should there be signs of a sustained easing on this front, developments in Venezuela are likely to return to the spotlight, with oil that was recently sanctioned or blocked gradually flowing onto the world market.”
Analysts expect higher supply this year, potentially creating a ceiling for the geopolitical risk premium on prices.
“Despite the steady drumbeat of geopolitical risks and macro speculation, the underlying balance still points to ample supply,” said Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva.
“Unless we see a genuine revival in Chinese demand or a meaningful bottleneck in physical barrel flows, oil looks range-bound, with Brent broadly hovering between $57 and $67.”
