OPEC+ is likely to leave oil output levels for the first quarter of 2026 unchanged at its meetings on Sunday, three delegates from the group said on Saturday, moderating a push to regain market share amid fears of a looming supply glut.
The meeting of OPEC+, which pumps half of the world’s oil, comes as oil prices are also under pressure from the prospect of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal. Brent crude closed on Friday near $63 a barrel, down 15 per cent this year. On Sunday, eight OPEC+ countries are likely to keep their policy to pause oil output hikes in the first quarter of 2026 unchanged, the three delegates said, following similar comments from others this week. They agreed the pause at their last meeting earlier in November.
OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, pumps about half the world’s oil and has been discussing for years production capacity figures against which members’ output targets are set.
In a separate meeting on Sunday, the full OPEC+ group is expected to agree on a mechanism to assess members’ maximum production capacity, sources told Reuters this week. OPEC said in May this capacity assessment would be used as a reference for 2027 output baselines.
A series of online meetings is scheduled to begin at 1300 GMT on Sunday. OPEC+ ministers are also expected to not make any changes to group-wide production targets for 2026, other sources said this week.
OPEC+ had been curtailing supplies for years until April when the eight members began to raise production to recover market share. The cuts had peaked in March, amounting to 5.85 million barrels per day, almost 6 per cent of world output, in total.
The eight – Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman – have raised output targets by around 2.9 million bpd from April to December.
