Oil prices fell on Wednesday after reports indicated the United States is renewing its push to end Russia’s war in Ukraine and has drafted a framework for it.
Brent crude futures fell $1.63, or 2.5 per cent, to $63.26 a barrel 12:15 p.m. ET (1715 GMT), while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $1.56, or 2.6 per cent, to $59.18.
The US has signaled to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that his side must accept the US-drafted framework to end the war, which proposes Kyiv giving up territory and some weapons, two sources told Reuters.
An end to the war in Ukraine might pave the way for higher Russian oil flows, adding to oversupply concerns, analysts said.
“With the amount of oil on the water, in floating storage and what has been sanctioned, prices will probably end up in the low 50s as all of that oil that is sanctioned from Russia will probably come to market,” said Scott Shelton, energy specialist at TP ICAP Group.
The US last month announced sanctions against Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, setting a November 21 deadline for companies to wind down business with the companies. The sanctions had already reduced Moscow’s oil revenues and are likely to reduce the amount of oil it can sell in the long-term, the US Treasury said on Monday.
“There is maximum pressure right now as Friday’s deadline is looming,” said Rystad Energy oil analyst Janiv Shah, adding that a lower geopolitical risk premium would leave investors focusing more closely on weak market fundamentals.
Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak denied that the sanctions were impacting oil production, and said Russia will reach its OPEC+ production quota by the end of this year or early next year.
Keeping oil’s declines in check, the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported a larger-than-expected draw from US crude stockpiles last week on higher refinery runs and exports.
