India’s oil imports from the United States have risen to their highest level since 2022 in Oct, underlining bargain hunting by Indian refiners rather than a structural shift amid Washington’s onslaught against New Delhi over purchase of discounted Russian oil.
Latest data from Kpler, the global real-time data and analytics provider, shows US crude imports rising to 540,000 barrels per day (bpd) and likely to close the month at about 575,000 bpd. Based on US export data, the agency pegs Nov shipments at about 400,000-450,000 bpd, a sharp jump from the year-to-date average of about 300,000 bpd.
According to Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia, the surge was driven by market conditions rather than a structural shift. “A strong arbitrage, wider spread between Brent and WTI (West Texas Intermediary, a US benchmark crude) as well as lack of Chinese demand made American shipments competitive for Indian refiners on delivered basis,” he said in a note.
He pointed out that if one considers the voyage time of 45–55 days from the US, the cargoes were likely booked before the latest US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, the largest exporters of Russian crude.
This indicates the surge is not because of the latest US sanctions and will be temporary in nature. “Further upside is capped. While the surge underscores India’s refining flexibility and ability to capture short-term opportunities, the current rise is arbitrage-led, not structural, as longer voyage times, higher freight, and WTI’s lighter, naphtha-rich yield limits increased buying,” he said.
But still, rising US share in India’s crude basket carries strategic value since it is part of a strategy agreed upon by the two countries to narrow the US trade deficit as they target $500 billion trade by 2030.
