Any blocking or disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – a narrow passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea – will have significant global and regional impact including for India’s energy security, strategic affairs experts said on Sunday.
Following the US bombing of three major Iranian nuclear sites this morning, Tehran has indicated that closing the Strait of Hormuz for shipping is one of the options on the table to pressure its adversaries.
Nearly 30 per cent of global oil and a third of the world’s LNG (liquefied natural gas) passes through the Strait daily and its closure would immediately reduce global supplies triggering a spike in prices, they said.
The shutting down of the narrow passage would have significant global repercussions across energy markets and it will impact India’s energy security as well, said Dr Laxman Kumar Behera, Associate Professor at Special Centre for National Security Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University.
Behera said any disruption in the critical shipping lane, which is a geopolitical flashpoint, will majorly impact India’s crude oil import from Iraq and to an extent from Saudi Arabia.
Captain D K Sharma (retd), a former Indian Navy spokesperson who closely follows developments in the Gulf region, too said Iran’s threat to block the Strait of Hormuz could lead to significant disruptions in global oil trade. Any disruption in shipping traffic could impact insurance premiums, causing costlier rerouting of oil shipments, he said.
“Oil prices are expected to surge due to increased tensions in the region, with some analysts predicting prices to reach $80-$90 per barrel or even $100 per barrel if Iran responds with retaliatory measures,” he noted.
