Figure 6. Crude inventories versus the 2020-2025 seasonal average, showing onshore builds, adjusted on-water stocks, and China crude on the water. Source: Vortexa
Succession: The Internal Power Question
Under Article 111, an interim leadership council is active. The assembly of Experts must appoint a permanent Supreme Leader. I have broken the analysis of candidates out into a separate report here.
Rapid institutional succession = escalation stabilises.
Factional fragmentation = maritime leverage escalates.
Let’s see how this unfolds.
Military Escalation
Fresh missile waves have widened the perimeter of the war. Iranian sources claim 27 US bases were targeted; Israeli military assets have been struck; explosions have been reported in Doha, Dubai and Manama The worst-case scenario here is broader regional escalation that steps up outside focused attacks on US regional bases. This would serve as a catalyst for Brent to potentially hit $150 over the next 10 trading sessions. The US MUST contain this.
What is no broadly covered are two elements.
An Overview of Current U.S. Hypersonic Missile Developments
1 The US currently does not have hypersonic missile capability. The only hypersonic capability they have are with the longer range nuclear missiles that only achieve high mach speeds on atmospheric re-entry (mach 23), like the Minuteman series or Titan. These are the biggest of big boy deployment missiles. They also do not have glide adjustment vehicles ie. steering wile in mid air. They are literally like a stone you throw and hit a target.
On the other side, Iran does have hypersonic missile capability. These missiles far out match any Iron dome missile defence systems-moving at Mach 3+ ie. 2300mph or 3300 feet per second like the new CM302. If any of these weapons are directed at US warships, it is game over-there are currently no onboard systems on US carries that can deploy suitable defence to these missiles.
Missile economics.
Sustained War With Iran Could Drain U.S. Missile Stockpiles
The US can escalate fast, but sustaining a long war is another question. Tomahawks cost roughly $1–2 million each and production runs in the hundreds per year, not thousands. High-tempo operations burn through precision munitions in weeks, not months, while a carrier strike group can cost $6–8 million per day to operate. Stockpiles, procurement lead times and budget optics all argue against an open-ended campaign. Washington can shock; it is less well positioned to grind.
My Base Case Scenario
This is a short, violent disruption. The US naval pressure reopens the passage within days. Brent spikes above $100, then consolidates in $80-90 range. China starts to draw on reserves.
The tail risk for me is in insurance. If commercial insurance collapses for a week or more, Brent tests $130+ rapidly. Structural reset only occurs if flows remain materially constrained beyond two weeks.
See main report published tomorrow morning for updated trade charts and C.O.T analysis.
As a short guide to price action, here is what I see on front prices happening. From a Kplr call Sunday at 2pm GMT, there are re-open estimates for Brent to hit $85 to $90 Approx a +20% reopen. This puts WTI at $80. Based on 12 day war risk, this has to be considered as entirely different. This situation is fully now hot from both sides. I see we can hit at least $85 on Monday. There is a lot of conversation from the Kplr call that this was already largely priced in.
The question on my desk is to be, where do we see it make sense to re-enter longs. The way this plays through the week will tell.
