Traders are closely watching the 200-day moving average at $63.26, a level that continues to act as a technical barrier. A decisive break above this mark could trigger a wave of short-covering.
Key upside targets include the long-term 50% retracement at $64.56 and the 50-day moving average at $65.00. Beyond that, momentum may accelerate toward pivots at $65.41 and $66.18.
Failure to hold support at $61.12, however, would leave the door open to downside pressure, with the next major support seen at $56.09—the May 30 swing low.
EIA Inventory Draw Offers Strong Bullish Signal
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a sharper-than-expected 6 million barrel drawdown in crude inventories last week, well above the forecasted 1.8 million-barrel decline. The draw brings total crude stocks to 420.7 million barrels and signals robust demand.
However, a rise in Cushing inventories and comments from Panmure Liberum suggest the large draw may also reflect increased refinery runs and stronger export flows, potentially masking softer underlying consumption trends.
OPEC, Russia Sanctions and India Tariffs Keep Traders on Edge
Geopolitical tensions remain a core driver. Russia dismissed ongoing Ukraine-related negotiations that exclude Moscow as “a road to nowhere,” while the U.S. announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting August 27 in response to India’s continued purchase of discounted Russian crude—now accounting for roughly 35% of India’s total oil imports.
