The current short-term range spans from $61.12 to $65.10, placing the 50% retracement level at $63.11 directly in play. A firm break below that level would expose the market to a sharper decline toward the $61.12 support low.
On the upside, any rally is expected to face resistance at multiple technical barriers — beginning with $64.56, followed by the 50-day MA at $64.80, the swing top at $65.10, and two pivot levels at $65.41 and $66.18. The latter is seen as the key trigger point for any sustained upside breakout.
Ukraine-Russia Tensions Add Volatility, But Not Direction
While technical levels dominate near-term price action, geopolitical developments continue to inject volatility. Oil traders are watching for updates from U.S.-Ukraine-Russia diplomatic efforts, with meetings expected in New York this week. Though no breakthroughs have been reported, the war’s effect on Russian refineries is already being felt.
Ukrainian drone attacks have disrupted Russian processing capacity, prompting Moscow to lift its August crude export plan by 200,000 barrels per day from western ports, according to sources. This unexpected supply increase may limit upside potential in crude markets even as demand shows signs of life.
Inventory Draw Offers Temporary Support Ahead of EIA Report
Prices found some intraday stability after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a draw across U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week. While the full EIA data will be released later Wednesday, the preliminary API figures provided a short-term floor in an otherwise pressured market. Traders are looking for the EIA crude oil inventories report to show a draw of about 1.7M barrels.
However, with both WTI and Brent contracts posting over 2% losses on Tuesday, trader sentiment remains cautious. The combination of increasing Russian exports and fragile technical positioning points to potential headwinds in the near term.
