Mexico is weighing whether to halt or scale back oil shipments to Cuba as concerns grow within President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government that continuing the policy could trigger retaliation from the United States, according to sources familiar with internal discussions.
The review comes at a sensitive moment. Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba have stopped following U.S. intervention in Venezuela and the removal of Nicolás Maduro, leaving Mexico as Cuba’s most important remaining oil supplier. That shift has pulled Mexico directly into Washington’s crosshairs as the Trump administration ramps up pressure on Havana.
Publicly, Sheinbaum has said Mexico will continue shipping oil to Cuba under long-standing contracts under the guise of humanitarian aid. Behind closed doors, however, officials are increasingly uneasy. President Donald Trump has warned that there will be “no more oil or money” flowing to Cuba, and U.S. officials have made clear that countries facilitating Havana’s fuel supply are being closely watched.
Mexico’s dilemma is geopolitical as much as it is economic. The country is seeking a favorable review of the USMCA trade agreement while also trying to convince Washington it is doing enough to combat drug cartels. Mexican officials fear that oil shipments to Cuba could complicate both efforts at a time when Trump has openly floated unilateral U.S. action in the region.
The stakes are high for Cuba. The island is in the throes of a deep energy crisis that has manifested in the form of chronic blackouts, fuel shortages, and grid failures driven by years of underinvestment and dependence on imported oil. Venezuelan supplies once covered a large share of Cuba’s fuel needs. In their absence, Mexico’s crude and refined products have attempted to fill the void.
Between January and September last year, Mexico shipped roughly 17,200 barrels per day (bpd) of crude and 2,000 bpd of refined products to Cuba, according to Pemex filings. This may be modest by global standards, but it is what keeps Cuba’s power plants and transportation running.
Within Sheinbaum’s government, some officials argue that cutting off Cuba entirely could trigger a humanitarian crisis and migration toward Mexico. But some are concerned that defying Washington could come with far greater costs.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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