Key Support and Moving Averages
Support on Tuesday appeared near the 10-Day moving average, now at $63.79. This line should be monitored closely, as it had defined a breakout of a small trendline last Thursday following several days of testing as resistance. Holding above the 10-Day could generate a short-term bounce in crude oil. Resistance remains significant at the 20-Day average near $65.00 and at the long-term anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) of $65.51. This AVWAP had provided prior support before breaking on August 6, adding weight to the current resistance zone.
Resistance and Trendline Considerations
For buyers to regain control, crude oil would need a sustained move above this week’s high. Even if $65.77 is exceeded, resistance could emerge from the downtrend line and the 50-Day moving average, now at $66.84, marking the first test of that line since its breakdown on August 4. Further dynamic resistance exists near the 200-Day moving average at $67.88, representing the potential upside if early-week strength continues.
Downside Targets Remain in Focus
If the 10-Day moving average fails to hold, the bearish trend may resume toward the next support zone near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $60.66. This level aligns with prior trend dynamics and could act as a magnet for price action if selling pressure intensifies. For now, the trend favors sellers, with rallies likely encountering resistance until a confirmed breakout above key levels occurs.
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