Wedge Pattern and Support Dynamics
Complementing the Fibonacci level, the lower boundary of a potential falling bullish wedge (orange lines) also points to possible support nearby. Early signs of buying interest are evident, but a decisive drop below today’s low of $57.77 would shatter the potential for a bullish setup. That would also invalidate the wedge pattern and accelerate downside moves toward $56.47. The integrity of this pattern hinges on holding $57.77, where buyers must prove their resolve to halt the slide.
Bullish Reversal Potential
A promising bullish three-bar setup looms, with activation on a rally above today’s high of $59.92. This move would negate the new trend low bearish signal triggered by the drop below $58.36. A daily close above $59.92 would confirm reversal strength, boosting the odds for an advance toward the wedge’s upper boundary. Intermediate hurdles would provide confirmation along the way, testing buyer conviction.
Upside Resistance Levels
On any recovery, a prior support shelf around $60.66 could flip to resistance, aligning closely with the falling 10-day moving average at $60.90—levels converging over time. Reclaiming the 10-day line sustainably would pivot toward the 20-day average at $62.45, where the recent swing high of $63.04 met rejection. The market previously respected this average, and it may cap gains again unless it is breached decisively, signaling renewed bullish momentum.
Outlook and Key Triggers
Crude’s fate balances on $58.39 support; hold it for the hope of a bullish reversal or break it for deeper declines. Watch for a close above $59.92 to spark bulls, while $56.47 lurks below. Price action in the next day or so should clarify if this dip is a trap or a turning point.
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