Where Trump is likely getting his $1.98 gas price figure

President Donald Trump has falsely claimed that gasoline prices have fallen below $2 per gallon, in his push to convince the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

“Gasoline just broke $1.98 a Gallon, lowest in years,” Trump said in a post on his social media platform Truth Social on Friday. “Consumers have been waiting for years to see pricing come down. NO INFLATION, THE FED SHOULD LOWER ITS RATE!!!”

U.S. drivers, however, were paying $3.165 per gallon on average Monday, according to the motorist association AAA. That’s an increase of nearly 2 cents from last week and about $1.18 more per gallon than Trump’s claim. Gas prices have increased about 4 cents since Trump took office on Jan. 20, when consumers were paying about $3.12 on average, according to AAA data.

GasBuddy has also seen gas prices rise about 2 cents over the past week to $3.12 per gallon, based on data from more than 12 million price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The increase this week is the first time drivers have paid more at the pump in nearly a month.

Still, the national gas price average is down 12 cents compared with last month and 49.6 cents lower than the same period last year, according to GasBuddy data.

RBOB Gasoline futures did touch $1.98 per gallon on Thursday, the day before Trump’s post. The contract is currently trading at around $2 after hitting a low of about $1.96 during Monday’s trading session. The RBOB contract, however, does not reflect what drivers are currently paying at the pump. The contract tracks wholesale, unfinished gasoline before other costs are included such as mixing in ethanol to produce retail gas.

When asked by CNBC whether the president was referencing RBOB, Trump administration officials pointed to the contract’s recent price action.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said only analysts, wholesalers and fuel buyers at large store chains care about RBOB.

“That price is not inclusive of anything. It excludes taxes, it excludes [pipeline] tariffs, transportation, the cost of doing business, credit card fees — I mean all of it,” he said.

“It does not come anywhere near explaining what consumers are paying,” the analyst added. “It would be irrelevant to the consumer to know what the price of RBOB is because they’re not paying the wholesale price of RBOB.”

According to De Haan, there are a few places where a consumer might pay less. Gas prices are in the $2.20 range at some individual stations in states such as Texas and Tennessee, he said

“Nothing at retail level that I’ve seen in the last couple of weeks has been below $2 a gallon,” he said. However, De Haan said he has seen some individual payments of $1.99 per gallon, but these reflect loyalty point redemptions that consumers use to reduce what they pay at the pump.

“In an apples-to-apples comparison, we have not seen a retail price available to everyone below about $2.20 a gallon, but what we have seen is consumers can lower their prices through the use of points and other promotions,” De Haan said.

Gas prices in the U.S. could soon dip below $3 per gallon as refinery maintenance wraps up and supplies increase in the U.S., De Haan said. Prices at the pump are currently at the lowest levels since 2021, De Haan said.

White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said gas prices hit record lows during Trump’s first term and are falling “again thanks to President Trump unleashing American energy.”

Gas prices have dropped over the last month as crude oil has plummeted on recession fears due to Trump’s tariffs and OPEC+ producers rapidly bringing more supply to the market.

“While some of the damage done by Bidenomics is still lingering, President Trump’s economic agenda is lowering prices for American families at lightning speed,” Rogers said.