USA Gasoline, Diesel Prices ‘Surge’

In a blog posted on its website on Monday, GasBuddy outlined that U.S. gasoline and diesel prices had “surge[d] as Middle East tensions remain high”.

“The nation’s average price of gasoline has risen 23.2 cents over the last week and stands at $3.68 per gallon,” GasBuddy stated in the blog.

“The national average is up 80.0 cents from a month ago and is 66.1 cents per gallon higher than a year ago. The national average price of diesel rose 34.0 cents in the last week and stands at $4.951 per gallon,” it added.

GasBuddy revealed in the blog that the most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $3.49 per gallon, “up 30 cents from a week ago”. This was followed by $3.59, $3.39, $3.29, and $3.69, according to the blog, which noted that the median U.S. gas price was $3.49 per gallon, “up 20 cents from last week and about 19 cents lower than the national average”.

The top 10 percent of stations in the country average $5.28 per gallon, while the bottom 10 percent average $3.10 per gallon, GasBuddy noted.

According to the blog, the most common U.S. diesel price stood at $4.99 per gallon, which GasBuddy highlighted was unchanged from last week. This was followed by $4.79, $4.69, $4.89, and $4.49, the blog revealed.

The median U.S. diesel price was $4.99 per gallon, “up 40 cents from last week and about two cents higher than the national average”, GasBuddy outlined. Diesel prices at the top 10 percent of stations in the country average $5.68 per gallon, according to the blog, which noted that the bottom 10 percent average $4.23 per gallon.

“Consumers continue to feel the sting of rising oil, gasoline, and diesel costs as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, pushing gasoline prices to their highest levels in years while diesel could soon approach the $5 per gallon mark nationally,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, warned in the blog.

“Until we see a meaningful resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, upward pressure on fuel prices is likely to persist,” he added.

“At the same time, seasonal forces are beginning to intensify as several regions complete the transition to summer gasoline, creating a double headwind that could continue driving pump prices higher in the weeks ahead,” De Haan continued.

EIA Gasoline, Diesel Projections

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on March 10, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its U.S. gasoline and diesel price forecasts for both 2026 and 2027.

According to its March STEO, the EIA now sees the U.S. regular gasoline retail price averaging $3.34 per gallon in 2026 and $3.18 per gallon in 2027. In its previous STEO, which was released in February, the EIA projected that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price would come in at $2.91 per gallon this year and $2.93 per gallon next year.

The EIA’s March STEO sees the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price averaging $4.12 per gallon in 2026 and $3.78 per gallon in 2027. In its February STEO, the EIA projected that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price would average $3.43 per gallon this year and $3.47 per gallon next year.

“The U.S. average retail gasoline price in our forecast averages $3.58 per gallon in March,” the EIA said in its latest STEO.

“Relative to last month’s STEO, higher crude oil prices contribute to gasoline prices that are 60 cents per gallon higher in March and about 70 cents per gallon higher in the second quarter of 2026,” it added.

“Prices decline in the third and fourth quarters, falling back close to $3.00 per gallon by the end of the year. Our annual average forecast for retail gasoline prices in 2026 is now $3.34 per gallon,” it continued.

“In 2027, we expect annual average retail gasoline prices to fall below $3.20 per gallon. Our 2027 forecast is up 25 cents per gallon compared with our February STEO,” it said.

In its March STEO, the EIA stated that crude oil prices typically constitute around half the total retail price of gasoline.

“Other factors include, but are not limited to, refinery margins (subtracting crude oil cost from the refined product price) and retail margins (subtracting wholesale gasoline cost from the pump price),” it highlighted.

“Although we expect most of the gasoline price increase to be passed through to the retail price in the coming weeks, we also expect that the normalization of refining and retail margins will occur more slowly,” it added.

“The net effect will be continued upward pressure in the second quarter that lags behind the initial increase,” it said.

“Well above-average seasonal gasoline inventories reported in our Weekly Petroleum Status Report support our outlook for higher inventories of gasoline in 2026, which contributes to some downward pressure on refiner and retail margins,” the EIA continued.

Current Prices

According to the AAA Fuel Prices website, as of March 17, in the U.S., the average regular gasoline price is $3.790 per gallon and the average diesel price is $5.044 per gallon.

Yesterday’s gasoline price average was $3.718 per gallon, the week ago average was $3.539 per gallon, the month ago average was $2.917 per gallon, and the year ago average was $3.078 per gallon, the site showed.

Yesterday’s diesel price average was $4.988 per gallon, the week ago average was $4.780 per gallon, the month ago average was $3.651 per gallon, and the year ago average was $3.592 per gallon, the site highlighted.

The highest recorded average price of regular gasoline was seen on June 14, 2022, at $5.016 per gallon, and the highest recorded price of diesel was seen on June 19, 2022, at $5.816 per gallon, the AAA site outlined.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com