The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its 2026 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil average spot price forecast, and lowered its 2027 projection, in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO).
According to the EIA’s February STEO, which was released on February 10, the EIA now sees the WTI spot price averaging $53.42 per barrel this year and $49.34 per barrel next year. In its previous STEO, which was released in January, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would average $52.21 per barrel in 2026 and $50.36 per barrel in 2027.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that the WTI average spot price will come in at $58.62 per barrel in the first quarter of this year, $53.65 per barrel in the second quarter, $51.69 per barrel in the third quarter, $50.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $49.00 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $49.66 per barrel in the second quarter, $49.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $49.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2027.
In its previous STEO, the EIA forecast that the WTI spot price would average $54.93 per barrel in the first quarter of this year, $52.67 per barrel in the second quarter, $52.03 per barrel in the third quarter, $49.34 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $49.00 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $50.66 per barrel in the second quarter, $50.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $51.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2027.
In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on Friday, BMI projected that the front month WTI crude price will average $64.00 per barrel in 2026 and $68.00 per barrel in 2027.
Standard Chartered sees the NYMEX WTI nearby future crude oil price averaging $59.90 per barrel in 2026 and $63.50 per barrel in 2027, according to a report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered team this week.
That report showed that the company sees the commodity averaging $58.50 per barrel in the first quarter of this year, $59.50 per barrel in the second quarter, $60.50 per barrel in the third quarter, $61.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $63.00 per barrel in the first quarter of next year.
In a J.P. Morgan report sent to Rigzone on February 4 by Natasha Kaneva, the company’s head of global commodities strategy, J.P. Morgan projected that the WTI crude oil price will average $54 per barrel this year and $53 per barrel next year.
A quarterly breakdown included in that report showed that the company was forecasting that the commodity will come in at $56 per barrel in the first quarter of this year, $55 per barrel in the second quarter, $52 per barrel in the third quarter, $51 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $51 per barrel in the first quarter of 2027, $53 per barrel across the second and third quarters, and $55 per barrel in the fourth quarter of next year.
In a market comment sent to Rigzone on Thursday, Aaron Hill, Chief Market Analyst at FP Markets, noted that “oil prices continue to attract bids amid Middle East tensions”.
“Technically, WTI Oil – thanks to a lackluster response from daily resistance at $66.02 – shows scope for further outperformance, per chart studies,” he added.
A Stratas Advisors report sent to Rigzone by the Stratas team late Monday highlighted that the price of WTI ended the week at $63.50 per barrel after closing the previous week at $65.74 per barrel.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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