Russia’s crude output declined for a second straight month in January as the world’s third largest oil producer faces difficulty in marketing its barrels because of US sanctions.
The nation pumped an average of 9.28 million barrels a day of crude oil last month, according to people with knowledge of the data, who asked not to be identified discussing classified information.
The figure — which doesn’t include output of condensate — is 46,000 barrels a day below an already-reduced level in December, and almost 300,000 barrels a day lower than what Russia is allowed to produce under an agreement with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies.
Russia has classified its data on oil production, exports and refinery operations, making independent assessments difficult. Its Energy Ministry didn’t immediately respond to a Bloomberg request for a comment on the January output level and future production plans.
The decline in production comes as the amount of Russian crude held on tankers continues to grow, indicating that some cargoes are taking significant time to find buyers amid growing US pressure on the Kremlin. Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump said he eliminated an extra 25% tariff he had imposed on India in exchange for New Delhi halting oil purchases from Russia.
While India confirmed the trade deal, it has not commented on details including oil. Still, nearly all state-owned and private Indian refiners have paused buying any spot cargoes since Trump first mentioned the deal in a social media post about a week ago.
By the start of February, accumulated volumes of Russian crude on water reached 143 million barrels, almost doubling from a year ago and creeping up by more than a quarter compared to late November.
As India has pulled back from purchases, some tankers with sanctioned barrels are now heading for China, another key buyer of Russian crude. Yet it remains unclear just how many extra barrels sold by Moscow the Chinese market is willing to absorb.
Declining production is a risk for the Russian budget, which last year relied on the oil and gas industry for around 23% of its revenues. In January, the Russian government’s oil proceeds already dropped to a five-year low, driven by weaker global prices, steeper discounts and a stronger ruble.
If Russia’s production cuts continue, the nation will also risk losing its share in the global oil market to allies in OPEC+. The group agreed to hold output steady in the first quarter of 2026 and so far has not made any public decision about its strategy beyond March.
Last week, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the group expects global oil demand to pick up starting in March or April. Novak’s comments carry particular heft as Russia has recently advocated for OPEC+ to be cautious in adding barrels.
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