The world’s largest independent oil trader Vitol Group said oil demand will take longer to peak than it previously estimated as countries prioritize growth and energy security over efforts to curb consumption.
“Over the past year, decarbonisation policies have become a less decisive driver of efforts to curb oil consumption and reduce carbon dioxide emissions,” it said in a report on Monday. “Policy priorities have increasingly been reframed around economic competitiveness and geopolitical strategy.”
The forecast is the latest signal that the energy industry is shaping up for a longer and bigger future for hydrocarbons. Vitol trades about 7% of the world’s oil every day, in addition to running a network of refineries and filling stations.
Oil demand is now expected to reach a high of around 112 million barrels a day at some point in the mid-2030s, Vitol said in the report. In 2040, it will be about 5 million barrels a day higher than current levels, it said.
That’s a marked change from the firm’s forecasts just a year ago, when the trading house said it expected a lower peak in the early 2030s to be followed by a steeper decline.
A slower near-term uptake of electric vehicles in the US and parts of Asia “underpins” the firm’s changing outlook. US gasoline demand is expected to drop by 800,000 barrels a day by 2040, it said.
The company also expects European gasoline demand to be “broadly similar” in 2040 to where it is today, though demand in China is expected to more than halve because electric vehicles are becoming cheaper and much more widespread.
The firm cautioned that oil’s use in transportation could be greater and longer lasting than it previously anticipated.
“Our caveat remains that, if EV adoption stalls and policy targets continue to be deferred, road transport fuel demand in 2040 could exceed current projections,” it said.
Vitol forecasts jet fuel to grow to represent 9% of all oil demand by the end of the next decade, up from almost 7% today as people become wealthier and fly more. Adoption of so-called sustainable aviation fuels that might substitute oil face cost barriers, it said.
Generated by readers, the comments included herein do not reflect the views and opinions of Rigzone. All comments are subject to editorial review. Off-topic, inappropriate or insulting comments will be removed.
element
var scriptTag = document.createElement(‘script’);
scriptTag.src = url;
scriptTag.async = true;
scriptTag.onload = implementationCode;
scriptTag.onreadystatechange = implementationCode;
location.appendChild(scriptTag);
};
var div = document.getElementById(‘rigzonelogo’);
div.innerHTML += ” +
‘
‘ +
”;
var initJobSearch = function () {
//console.log(“call back”);
}
var addMetaPixel = function () {
if (-1 > -1 || -1 > -1) {
/*Meta Pixel Code*/
!function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s)
{if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function(){n.callMethod?
n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments)};
if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version=’2.0′;
n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0;
t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0];
s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)}(window, document,’script’,
‘https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/fbevents.js’);
fbq(‘init’, ‘1517407191885185’);
fbq(‘track’, ‘PageView’);
/*End Meta Pixel Code*/
} else if (0 > -1 && 73 > -1)
{
/*Meta Pixel Code*/
!function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s)
{if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function(){n.callMethod?
n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments)};
if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version=’2.0′;
n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0;
t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0];
s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)}(window, document,’script’,
‘https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/fbevents.js’);
fbq(‘init’, ‘1517407191885185’);
fbq(‘track’, ‘PageView’);
/*End Meta Pixel Code*/
}
}
// function gtmFunctionForLayout()
// {
//loadJS(“https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-K6ZDLWV6VX”, initJobSearch, document.body);
//}
// window.onload = (e => {
// setTimeout(
// function () {
// document.addEventListener(“DOMContentLoaded”, function () {
// // Select all anchor elements with class ‘ui-tabs-anchor’
// const anchors = document.querySelectorAll(‘a .ui-tabs-anchor’);
// // Loop through each anchor and remove the role attribute if it is set to “presentation”
// anchors.forEach(anchor => {
// if (anchor.getAttribute(‘role’) === ‘presentation’) {
// anchor.removeAttribute(‘role’);
// }
// });
// });
// }
// , 200);
//});
