The U.S. is projected to produce almost a quarter of the world’s petroleum and other liquid fuels output in 2026 in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook.
According to the EIA’s January STEO, which was published last month, the EIA sees U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuels production averaging 23.88 million barrels per day in 2026. The EIA forecasts in the STEO that global production this year will come in at 107.65 million barrels per day, putting the U.S. contribution at 22.18 percent of the overall figure.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO outlined that the EIA sees U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuels production making up 22.18 percent of the world’s total petroleum and liquid fuels production in the first quarter of this year, 22.25 percent in the second quarter, 22.15 percent in the third quarter, and 22.14 percent in the fourth quarter.
The U.S. share of global petroleum and other liquid fuels production is projected to drop to 21.84 percent in 2027 in the EIA’s latest STEO, which forecasts that U.S. output will average 23.63 million barrels per day and that global production will average 108.18 million barrels per day.
Back in 2025, the U.S. share of global petroleum and other liquid fuels production came in at 22.22 percent, the EIA’s January STEO showed. U.S. output averaged 23.62 million barrels per day in 2025 and global production came in at 106.28 million barrels per day, the STEO highlighted.
OPEC+ is projected to contribute 44.93 million barrels per day, or 41.73 percent, to the 2026 total, and 45.07 million barrels per day, or 41.66 percent, to the 2027 total, the EIA pointed out in its STEO. OPEC+ contributed 43.80 million barrels per day, or 41.21 percent, to the 2025 total, the STEO showed.
Non-OPEC+ production, excluding the U.S., is projected to make up 38.84 million barrels per day, or 36.07 percent, of this year’s total petroleum and other liquid fuels production, and 39.47 million barrels per day, or 36.48 percent, of next year’s total, the STEO revealed. In 2025, non-OPEC+ production, excluding the U.S., made up 38.86 million barrels per day, or 36.56 percent, of the total 2025 figure.
“We expect global production of liquid fuels will increase by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026 and 0.5 million barrels per day in 2027,” the EIA noted in its January STEO.
“Global liquid fuels production growth in 2026 is driven by crude oil production growth in OPEC+, while production growth in 2027 is driven by countries outside of OPEC+, primarily in South America,” it added.
“Our forecast assumes existing sanctions on Venezuela remain in place through 2027,” it continued.
The EIA highlighted in its STEO that its petroleum and other liquid fuels production figures include crude oil, lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, refinery processing gain, and other unaccounted-for liquids.
The EIA also pointed out in its latest STEO that its OPEC+ total figures include OPEC members subject to OPEC+ agreements, plus Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, South Sudan, and Sudan.
The EIA’s January STEO is the first to include forecasts for 2027. The organization’s next STEO is scheduled to be released on February 10.
In its STEO, the EIA describes itself as the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy.
“By law, our data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. Government,” the EIA notes in the report, adding that the views in its STEO “do not represent those of DOE or any other federal agencies”.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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