The United States has officially exited the Paris climate agreement for the second time, cementing Donald Trump’s renewed break with the primary global venue to address global heating.
The move leaves the US as the only country to have withdrawn from the pact, placing it alongside Iran, Libya and Yemen as the only countries not party to the agreement. While it will not halt global climate efforts, experts say it could significantly complicate them.
First announced on his first day back as president last January in a stadium in front of supporters, the US’s departure comes as the Trump administration has launched a sweeping assault on domestic climate policy. This month, it also announced it will leave the UN framework convention on climate change, under which the Paris treaty was adopted. Together, the moves amount to a wholesale withdrawal from climate governance.
“It’s almost like they’re saying, we don’t care what you want from us, we will be the bad guys, and you cannot challenge us on it, because that’s exactly what we said you should expect from us,” said Basav Sen, climate justice project director at the progressive thinktank Institute for Policy Studies.
The US retreat from climate action has not halted all global emissions-cutting efforts. Investment in low-carbon energy is far outpacing spending on fossil fuels. Renewable energy sources accounted for more than 90% of new power generation capacity last year and, in much of the world, are now the cheapest source of new electricity.
China is increasingly shaping the green transition. Though it remains the world’s top coal consumer, its emissions appear to have peaked last year. This month, Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD surpassed Tesla in electric vehicle sales, while Chinese firms now produce more than 80% of the world’s solar panels and about 70% of wind turbines, giving them dominant control over clean energy supply chains.
Trump’s policies risk pushing the US to the margins of the global climate effort – and slowing momentum elsewhere, say experts.
“Yes, the real economy is moving in the direction of renewables, clean energy, etc, but there’s still a role for the global regime in terms of sending political signals and nudging that real economy along,” said Sue Biniaz, a former deputy climate envoy under Joe Biden. “Now, that ambition is going to fall behind.”
In September, for instance, China committed to cutting its greenhouse gas output by 7-10% within a decade. Experts widely criticized the pledge as insufficient.
“The US abdication on climate allows fossil advocates in China more voice to slow down the energy transition,” said Jeremy Wallace, professor of China studies at Johns Hopkins University. “A pro-climate president in the White House would push China to be more ambitious.”
Other countries may also use the US’s lack of climate ambition to justify their own, Biniaz said.
“I think other countries are looking at the fact that the US is departing … from the international climate regime and using that as a reason to do less,” she said.
Some countries may also follow the US’s departure from Paris: Israel is reportedly considering such a move.
Yet US disengagement is also prompting some countries to take bolder climate action, Sen said. At last year’s Cop30 talks in Brazil, Colombia and the Netherlands announced plans to host the first-ever international talks focused on phasing out fossil fuels, alongside Pacific Island nations.
“I have to believe that the reactionary position of the US acted as further impetus for those countries to step up,” he said.
Still, any rise in emissions driven by Trump’s fossil fuel expansion will be felt worldwide, making Paris targets harder to reach even for the most ambitious countries, Sen warned.
“If the domestic market in the US continues to be dominated by fossil fuels through the fiat of an authoritarian government, that will continue to have an impact on the rest of the world,” he said, particularly as the administration fast-tracks production to meet soaring energy demand from artificial intelligence data centers.
By leaving Paris, the US, which is the world’s richest country, has also removed itself from global efforts to help poorer nations transition away from fossil fuels, Sen said, pushing climate finance goals further from reach.
“It will be that much harder for low income countries, who are very dependent on fossil fuel production and exports, to be able to make their transitions with the US saying that we won’t fund any of it,” he said.
The withdrawal also reinforces perceptions of the US as an unreliable partner on global policy, say experts.
“I’m not sure if the United States has any credibility left to lose in the eyes of the world, but withdrawing from Paris for a second time does not help,” said Wallace.
Trump’s formal withdrawal from the Paris agreement comes as the planet barrels through record heat, worsening disasters and mounting economic losses tied to the climate crisis, Biniaz noted.
“Every scientific report tells us things are worse than we previously thought and that more action needs to be taken,” she said. “It’s the wrong time to be pulling out of the key agreement that’s dealing with the issue.”
