The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected, in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price will average under $3 per gallon both this year and next year.
According to the STEO, which was released on January 13, the EIA sees the U.S. regular gasoline retail price averaging $2.92 per gallon in 2026 and $2.95 per gallon in 2027. In 2025, the U.S. regular gasoline retail price averaged $3.10 per gallon, the STEO showed.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price will come in at $2.85 per gallon in the first quarter of 2026, $3.02 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.03 per gallon in the third quarter, $2.78 per gallon across the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year, $3.05 per gallon in the second quarter of 2027, $3.07 per gallon in the third quarter, and $2.89 per gallon in the fourth quarter of 2027.
“U.S. retail gasoline prices in our forecast are mostly lower in 2026 and 2027 than they were in 2025,” the EIA said in its January STEO.
“We forecast U.S. gasoline prices in 2026 will average $2.92 per gallon, a decrease of 18 cents per gallon, or about six percent, compared with 2025. In 2027, we forecast retail gasoline prices will average $2.95 per gallon. Even with the slight increase in 2027, prices remain below 2025 levels in most regions,” it added.
“On both a nominal and percentage basis, we estimate the price decrease in 2026 will be similar in scale to the decreases in 2024 and 2025, in which prices declined by about six percent annually,” the EIA went on to state.
“After reaching record highs in 2022, gasoline price decreases reflect both decreasing crude oil prices and narrowing refinery margins. In 2026, falling crude oil prices reduce retail gasoline prices, but the decline is partly offset by increasing refinery margins, the first increase since 2022,” it continued.
The EIA went on to state in its latest STEO that, in 2026, it expects “lower inventories of gasoline will present some upward pressure for gasoline refinery margins as the United States loses some refinery capacity on the West Coast”.
“We forecast net imports of gasoline will increase to account for the lost capacity and to meet demand. We assume most of this increase in net imports of gasoline will be on the West Coast,” the EIA added.
“We expect this pattern to continue in 2027, which, combined with slight increases in the crude oil price, will contribute to annual increases in gasoline prices compared with 2026,” it said.
The EIA noted in its STEO that it estimates the retail gasoline price will decrease in all U.S. regions during 2026. It pointed out that, in 2027, it expects increasing retail gasoline prices compared with 2026 in all regions.
In a report published recently, GasBuddy revealed that it expects the U.S. gasoline price to average $2.97 per gallon this year. The report revealed that GasBuddy sees December as the month with the lowest average U.S. gasoline price in 2026, at $2.83 per gallon, and May as the month with the highest average U.S. gasoline price in 2026, at $3.12 per gallon.
GasBuddy’s live ticking average for regular gasoline in the U.S. was $2.839 per gallon as of 5.35 am EST on January 22. The figure was 2.3 cents up from yesterday’s average, 1.1 cents down from last week’s average, 4.1 cents up from last month’s average, and 29.7 cents down from last year’s average, GasBuddy’s website highlighted.
The AAA Fuel Prices website showed that the average U.S. regular gasoline price is $2.850 per gallon, as of January 22. Yesterday’s average was $2.833 per gallon, the week ago average was $2.844 per gallon, the month ago average was $2.855 per gallon, and the year ago average was $3.129 per gallon, the site showed.
The highest recorded average price of regular gasoline in the U.S. was seen on June 14, 2022, at $5.016 per gallon, the AAA Fuel Prices site outlined.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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