At 12:16 GMT, March WTI Crude Oil futures are trading $59.84, up $0.50 or +0.84%.
On the upside, the first target is a 50% level at $59.80. Overcoming this level could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the 200-day moving average at $60.49 and the 61.8% retracement level at $60.96. The latter is the last defense before the $62.20 main top.
Mixed Signals: Trump’s Tariffs vs. China’s Economic Strength
The news was mixed overnight, but it was just enough to steady the price action. Traders continued to assess the potential impact of President Trump’s new tariffs on European countries that were not supporting his quest for Greenland, but stronger-than-expected economic data from China helped steady prices. This news helped put in a floor, while giving prices a little boost. The market was also underpinned by an upward revision of the 2026 global economic growth estimate by the International Monetary Fund and stronger diesel prices.
Today’s steady but subdued price action suggests a brewing conflict between the impact of Trump’s newly proposed tariffs and stronger-than-expected economic data. Trump ignited the possibility of a trade war by threatening additional 10% levies from February 1 on goods imported from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Britain.
China’s GDP Data Lifts Global Demand Sentiment
However, this potentially negative news was offset by positive news from China in the form of better-than-expected fourth-quarter gross domestic product data on Monday. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore summed it up by saying, “The resilience in the world’s top oil importer provided a lift to demand sentiment.”
Supply Glut and Iran Tensions Define Long-Term Outlook
Looking ahead, the longer-term outlook remains bearish because of an ongoing global supply glut. This is helping to cap gains along with the 200-day moving average at $60.49. Creating a floor along with the 50-day moving average at $58.27 is the war premium in place due to the violence in Iran that could lead to a bullish supply disruption if conditions escalate.
