Russia’s Crude Output in December Made Deep Plunge

Russia’s crude oil production plunged by the most in 18 months in December, pincered by western sanctions that are causing the nation’s barrels to pile up at sea and a surge of Ukrainian drone attacks on its energy infrastructure.

The nation pumped an average 9.326 million barrels a day of crude oil last month, according to people with knowledge of government data, who asked not to be identified discussing classified information. The figure — which doesn’t include output of condensate — is more than 100,000 barrels a day below November, and almost 250,000 barrels a day lower than Russia is allowed to pump under agreement with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies.

The slump comes at a time when Ukraine has been carrying out wide ranging drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure — directly curbing output and affecting refineries that consume the barrels. At the same time, Russian cargoes are amassing at sea amid signs of reticence among some buyers to take them following sweeping US sanctions targeting the nation’s two largest producers, Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC.

Russia’s Energy Ministry didn’t immediately respond to a Bloomberg request for comment on the December crude production figures. It’s a public holiday in Russia.

The December decline was also the deepest since June 2024 — a period when Russia was supposed to be cutting its production anyway under an agreement with OPEC+.

The producer group agreed to return barrels to the market between April and December 2025, and then hold output steady in the first quarter of 2026. 

Until December, Russia’s output had been rising, even if growth had been petering out before year end. Russia’s required level of production for the final month of 2025 was 9.574 million barrels a day, according to OPEC data.

Historically, Russia had been a laggard in complying with OPEC+ output agreements, pumping above its targets, and even had to make additional cuts to compensate for overproduction. 

The cut in December came as Russia has been struggling to offload its export cargoes. By late December, the volume of Russian crude sitting in tankers exceeded 185 million barrels as key buyers, including some Indian refineries, were looking for workarounds for the sanctioned barrels.

Russian refineries’ crude-processing through most of December remained below the seasonal historic average as some refineries had to reduce or completely halt their operations amid record Ukrainian strikes — limiting domestic consumption of the nation’s barrels. 

At the same time, Ukraine struck Russian oil fields in the Caspian Sea for the first time since the war started, directly affecting production, and also hit tankers transporting Moscow’s barrels to the world. The ship attacks forced some vessels carrying the sanctioned barrels to take roundabout routes and made at least one tanker owner more wary of dealing with Russia.

Russia’s condensate output — which is excluded — typically doesn’t exceed 10% of total production, meaning it would require a disproportionate and sharp monthly hike in condensate production for the nation’s total output in December to exceed the November level.

Russia’s government classified the nation’s oil statistics in 2022, following the invasion in Ukraine.

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