Over 90 percent of current corporate buyers plan to continue purchasing voluntary carbon credits, with median volumes expected to rise more than 25 percent by 2035
Pricing and regulatory clarity are the primary barriers for future buyers, with regional differences across North America, EMEA, and APAC
Supply constraints for high integrity credits remain a structural challenge despite rising demand and stronger quality standards
Voluntary carbon markets remain small relative to global compliance systems, but corporate engagement is becoming more defined and more deliberate. A new survey by the Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing shows that companies already active in voluntary carbon markets largely view credits as a durable part of their decarbonization strategies, even as future participants weigh cost, regulation, and reputational risk more cautiously.
The Institute surveyed 225 global companies with annual revenues exceeding $1 billion to assess how corporate approaches to voluntary carbon credits may evolve. The findings highlight a clear divide between firms already buying credits, those planning to enter the market, and those choosing to stay out entirely.
Commitment From Established Buyers
Companies currently purchasing voluntary carbon credits are overwhelmingly large, listed firms with established net zero targets. More than 90 percent of these buyers say they intend to continue purchasing credits, and most expect volumes to increase over time.
For these companies, internal decarbonization progress is the single most important factor shaping future credit demand. Thirty two percent cited progress within their own operations and value chains as the primary driver of future volumes, well ahead of pricing considerations. This suggests credits are increasingly being treated as a complement to operational emissions reduction rather than a substitute.
On average, current buyers expect roughly two thirds of their emissions reductions to come from within their own operations or value chains. Another 28 percent is expected to come from grid decarbonization or similar measures, leaving only 7 percent of residual emissions to be addressed through carbon removals.
Price and Policy Uncertainty for Future Buyers
Companies planning to enter voluntary carbon markets in the future present a more cautious profile. While they expect to reach similar purchase volumes to current buyers by 2030, more than half report low or very low visibility on how many credits they will ultimately buy.
Pricing is the dominant concern for these future buyers, particularly in North America and the Asia Pacific region. Regulatory clarity is a larger consideration for companies based in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, reflecting differences in policy maturity and scrutiny around environmental claims.
This uncertainty underscores the importance of clearer market signals and more consistent regulatory frameworks if voluntary markets are to scale beyond early adopters.
Why Some Companies Opt Out
Not all corporates see a role for voluntary carbon credits. Among non buyers, 39 percent believe they can fully decarbonize within their own value chains and therefore see no need to purchase credits. However, the data also reveals a weaker overall commitment to net zero targets within this group.
Only 25 percent of non buyers currently have a net zero target, compared to 95 percent of current buyers and 85 percent of future buyers. Nearly a third of non buyers say they do not plan to set a net zero target at all, while 44 percent are still developing their strategies.
Sector composition also matters. Non buyers include a higher proportion of healthcare companies and fewer energy firms, suggesting that lower average carbon intensity may reduce perceived reliance on voluntary markets.
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Scope 3, Insetting, and Value Chain Pressure
Across both current and future buyers, more than 85 percent are already pursuing or considering insetting projects within their value chains. These include supplier energy efficiency initiatives and nature restoration projects designed to reduce emissions at source.
This shift reflects growing attention to Scope 3 emissions, which often represent the largest share of corporate climate impact.
“In our discussions with corporates, it’s clear that decarbonization efforts are no longer limited to direct operations,” says Cristina Lacaci, Morgan Stanley’s Global Head of Sustainability Structuring and Head of Sustainability Capital Markets EMEA. “As Scope 3 becomes a priority, management teams are seeking strategies that combine emissions reduction with biodiversity and nature stewardship across their value chains. This is particularly relevant for consumer facing businesses and those with agricultural or commodity exposure, where holistic action resonates strongly with stakeholders.”
Quality, Risk, and the Supply Gap
Reputational risk remains a central concern. Almost half of current buyers rank carbon credits among the top reputational risks they manage, yet more than 80 percent say the perceived benefits outweigh those risks. Most manage project exposure through diversified portfolios rather than single credit sources.
Demand is increasingly concentrated on higher integrity credits, including those aligned with the ICVCM Core Carbon Principles. However, supply remains limited.
“The market has seen a shift towards higher quality credits for more than two years,” says Iain Mackay, Executive Director and Head of Environmental Markets at Morgan Stanley. “We increasingly find that corporates have a clear idea of what instruments they want to buy, and what they are prepared to pay. The most common requests we get are for nature based solutions in the range of $15 to $30 per ton. While it takes time for supply to respond, the demand signals are now well established.”
As corporate climate strategies mature, voluntary carbon markets appear set to remain a supporting tool rather than a central pillar. Their long term role will depend on whether supply, standards, and policy can keep pace with increasingly sophisticated corporate demand.
Read the Morgan Stanley Voluntary Carbon Markets Survey here.
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