OPEC kept forecasts for global oil supplies and demand in 2026 steady, pointing to a balanced world market that clashes with widespread predictions of a surplus.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will need to produce an average of 43 million barrels a day next year to balance supply and demand, roughly in line with the amount pumped last month, according to a report on OPEC’s website.
This runs counter to prevailing industry expectations for a supply excess in 2026. Top trader Trafigura Group said this week it could amount to a “super glut,” and the International Energy Agency — while paring its projections in its report earlier Thursday — continues to expect a record overhang.
Key OPEC+ nations led by Saudi Arabia acknowledged the fragile backdrop last month by agreeing to pause further output increases during the first quarter after rapidly ramping up production earlier this year.
The outlook from OPEC’s Vienna-based secretariat has proven excessively bullish in recent years. Last year, OPEC was ultimately forced to slash demand projections by 32% over the course of six monthly downgrades. In late 2023, it forecast a record inventory deficit that never materialized.
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