In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on November 12, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its U.S. total energy consumption forecast for 2025 and 2026 but still projected an increase in demand from this year to next year.
According to its November STEO, the EIA now sees total energy consumption coming in at 95.71 quadrillion British thermal units (qBtu) in 2025 and 95.97 qBtu in 2026. This figure came in at 94.57 qBtu in 2024, the EIA’s latest STEO showed.
The EIA forecast in its November STEO that total energy consumption will come in at 23.96 qBtu in the fourth quarter, 24.81 qBtu in the first quarter of next year, 22.51 qBtu in the second quarter, 24.31 qBtu in the third quarter, and 24.34 qBtu in the fourth quarter. It highlighted that this demand was 25.45 qBtu in the first quarter, 22.45 qBtu in the second quarter, and 23.85 qBtu in the third quarter of 2025.
In its previous STEO, which was released in October, the EIA projected that total energy consumption would stand at 95.76 qBtu this year and 96.02 qBtu next year.
That STEO forecast that total energy consumption would come in at 24.01 qBtu in the fourth quarter of 2025, 24.83 qBtu in the first quarter of 2026, 22.51 qBtu in the second quarter, 24.30 qBtu in the third quarter, and 24.38 qBtu in the fourth quarter.
The EIA’s October STEO also showed that total energy consumption hit 25.45 qBtu in the first quarter of this year, 22.45 qBtu in the second quarter, and 23.85 qBtu in the third quarter. This STEO also highlighted that total energy consumption was 94.57 qBtu in 2024.
Liquid Fuels, Natural Gas
In its latest STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. liquid fuels demand will increase from 2024 to 2025, then drop slightly in 2026.
According to its November STEO, U.S. liquid fuels consumption will average 20.49 million barrels per day this year and 20.48 million barrels per day next year. This demand averaged 20.46 million barrels per day in 2024, the EIA’s November STEO highlighted.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO showed that the EIA expects U.S. liquid fuels demand to average 20.35 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 20.14 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 20.56 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 20.67 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 20.54 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
The EIA projected that U.S. natural gas consumption will increase both this year and next year in its latest STEO.
In this STEO, the EIA forecast that U.S. natural gas demand will average 91.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 and 91.8 billion cubic feet per day in 2026. The STEO highlighted that this consumption averaged 90.4 billion cubic feet per day back in 2024.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s November STEO showed that the EIA expects U.S. natural gas demand to average 93.8 billion cubic feet per day in the fourth quarter, 106.3 billion cubic feet per day in the first quarter of next year, 78.6 billion cubic feet per day in the second quarter, 87.0 billion cubic feet per day in the third quarter, and 95.4 billion cubic feet per day in the fourth quarter.
Renewables
The EIA also sees U.S. renewables consumption rising in 2025 and 2026 in its latest STEO, which projected that this consumption will rise from 8.68 qBtu in 2024 to 8.80 qBtu in 2025 and 9.42 qBtu in 2026.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s November STEO showed that the EIA expects U.S. renewables demand to come in at 2.18 qBtu in the fourth quarter of this year, 2.28 qBtu in the first quarter of 2026, 2.48 in the second quarter, 2.38 in the third quarter, and 2.29 qBtu in the fourth quarter.
The EIA noted in its STEOs that renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy. The EIA added in the STEOs that it does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.
In a note related to its total energy consumption figures, the EIA said in its STEOs that the conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIA’s Monthly Energy Review (MER).
The EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment, the EIA states on its website.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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