Coalition backbenchers are preparing for a showdown on net zero as pressure mounts on Sussan Ley’s opposition to resolve its position, with speculation more MPs could join Barnaby Joyce in quitting if the policy isn’t dumped.
Liberal and Nationals MPs have been invited to remain in Canberra after the upcoming sitting week for a three-hour, closed-door debate on energy policy, including net zero by 2050.
Guardian Australia understands most Nationals MPs won’t be able to attend next Friday’s meeting due to a diary clash.
The meeting is not designed to settle a final position but rather give backbench MPs an opportunity to argue their case for or against retaining a target that was originally agreed under Joyce and Scott Morrison’s leadership in 2021.
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A growing number of opposition MPs are frustrated that the “threshold question” of supporting or dumping net zero remains unresolved more than five months after the federal election defeat.
Two internal reviews are examining the question; one led by the shadow energy minister, Dan Tehan, and a separate Nationals inquiry.
The Nationals review, which is co-led by anti-net zero campaigner Matt Canavan, will reportedly be completed before Christmas and likely result in the party abandoning its commitment to the target.
That would appear to make it impossible for the Coalition to retain net zero even if the Liberals wanted to, given Ley needs the Nationals’ support to get a policy through shadow cabinet.
Canavan’s office declined to comment on the Nationals net zero inquiry.
Senior Liberals believe a policy that retains net zero – with caveats – could appeal to both Nationals fighting One Nation and metropolitan Liberals trying to regain a foothold in capital cities.
“The [review] process has been important post our election loss but there is a growing sense that we should resolve [net zero] soon rather than later,” the Liberal senator and ardent net zero supporter Andrew McLachlan said.
“The community want us to have a strong and robust response to climate change.”
Nationals MP and former leader Michael McCormack told Guardian Australia it was “fairly clear where the Nationals will go” – a reference to his expectation that the country party would walk away from the policy.
McCormack said while it was reasonable for the opposition to take its time developing policies, the sooner the net zero question was settled the better.
“We are haemorrhaging at the moment and it looks very, very untidy,” he said.
Tehan will attend next Friday’s meeting, which will run for three hours and give every MP an opportunity to express their views on climate and energy policy, according to an invite circulated on Friday.
“To attend this meeting, it will require you to stay in Canberra for the Friday in order to listen to your colleagues’ views, as well as share your own,” the invite read.
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The meeting is organised by the Coalition’s economic policy committee, whose conveners, Jane Hume and Simon Kennedy, both support net zero.
Joyce cited the Nationals’ current position in support of net zero among the reasons he was quitting the party, along with an irreparable breakdown in his relationship with leader David Littleproud.
On Monday, the former deputy prime minister confirmed he had spoken with the One Nation leader, Pauline Hanson, but said “nothing is locked in” amid speculation he was poised to defect to the far-right party, possibly to run for the Senate at the next election.
Hanson’s office declined to comment when contacted on Monday.
The Australian reported Nationals MP Llew O’Brien – a close ally of Joyce – would also consider quitting if the country party recommitted to net zero.
Canavan, another longtime Joyce ally, ruled out switching parties.
“It is Nats or bust for me. I will continue to fight hard against the scam that is net zero but I will not join any other party,” Canavan posted on social media.
Liberal MP Garth Hamilton who is among many Liberals publicly opposed to net zero, said he wouldn’t quit even if the Coalition recommitted to it.
“I’m staying in the tent,” he said. “[But] I believe my argument will win.”
Another Liberal MP, who expects the Coalition will ultimately agree to a net zero “with conditions” policy, said the opposition doesn’t need to rush to a position.
“We have a lack of credibility at the moment. We have to rebuild that credibility by highlighting the weaknesses in the government’s approach. When people see that, they will be more attuned to the alternative,” the MP said.
