Support is layered below at $61.34 and $61.10, with stronger protection near the August 13 low of $60.77. The current range reflects a market caught between bearish macro headwinds and still-constructive positioning data.
OPEC Supply Adds Pressure as Kurdish Pipeline Nears Restart
A tentative deal between Iraq’s federal and Kurdish governments to resume oil exports via Turkey could bring an additional 230,000 bpd back online. This agreement, pending cabinet approval, reintroduces barrels sidelined since March 2023, adding pressure to a market already sensitive to rising supply.
The International Energy Agency projects that global oil supply will increase through 2025 and into 2026, driven by both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers. While OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report sticks with a bullish demand estimate of 1.3 million bpd in 2025, traders are increasingly aware that rising output could blunt any tightening narrative unless demand surprises to the upside.
OECD Lifts Global Growth Outlook—Supportive, but With Caveats
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development added a bullish wrinkle to the demand picture, raising its global GDP forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, up from 2.9% in June. U.S. growth was also revised higher to 1.8% from 1.6%, reflecting better-than-expected industrial production, AI-led investment, and fiscal support in China.
This upward revision could offer crude markets some underlying support, as stronger economic activity tends to boost transport and industrial fuel demand. However, the OECD flagged multiple risks, including escalating U.S. tariffs—now at their highest effective rate since 1933—and rising fiscal and financial market uncertainties.
While headline inflation across G20 nations is expected to ease slightly, the threat of renewed pricing pressures could still prompt tighter central bank policies, tempering demand growth over time.
