The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects U.S. crude oil production to drop next year, according to its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on September 9.
In its September STEO, the EIA projected that total U.S. crude oil output, including lease condensate, will average 13.44 million barrels per day in 2025 and 13.30 million barrels per day in 2026. This output came in at 13.23 million barrels per day in 2024, the STEO highlighted.
The STEO showed that Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, will provide 11.18 million barrels per day of the projected total in 2025 and 10.96 million barrels per day of the projected total in 2026.
Of this 11.18 million barrel per day figure, the STEO expects 6.52 million barrels per day to come from the Permian region, 1.20 million barrels per day to come from the Bakken region, 1.12 million barrels per day to come from the Eagle Ford region, 0.19 million barrels per day to come from the Appalachia region, 0.03 million barrels per day to come from the Haynesville region, and 2.12 million barrels per day to come from the “rest of [the] Lower 48 states”.
In 2026, the STEO sees 6.41 million barrels per day coming from the Permian region, 1.20 million barrels per day coming from the Bakken region, 1.10 million barrels per day coming from the Eagle Ford region, 0.17 million barrels per day coming from the Appalachia region, 0.03 million barrels per day to come from the Haynesville region, and 2.05 million barrels per day to come from the “rest of [the] Lower 48 states”.
The EIA’s latest STEO showed that, in 2024, the Permian region produced 6.30 million barrels per day, the Bakken region produced 1.23 million barrels per day, the Eagle Ford region produced 1.16 million barrels per day, the Appalachia region produced 0.16 million barrels per day, the Haynesville region produced 0.03 million barrels per day, and the “rest of [the] Lower 48 states” produced 2.15 million barrels per day.
The STEO expects the Federal Gulf of America to produce 1.84 million barrels per day this year and 1.90 million barrels per day in 2026. It sees Alaska production rising from 0.43 million barrels per day in 2025 to 0.44 million barrels per day next year. Federal Gulf of America production averaged 1.79 million barrels per day in 2024 and Alaska production averaged 0.42 million barrels per day last year, the STEO highlighted.
“Due to rising natural gas prices and falling oil prices in 2026, we forecast that crude oil will trade at its lowest premium to natural gas since 2005,” the EIA said in its September STEO.
“As a result, we expect drilling activity in the United States to be more centered in natural gas-intensive producing regions in 2026,” it added.
“We expect U.S. natural gas production will be relatively flat next year compared with 2025, while we expect crude oil production will decline by about one percent,” it continued.
A data page on the EIA website showing annual U.S. field production of crude oil, which was last updated on August 29 and which includes data from 1859 to 2024, showed that annual U.S. field production of crude oil averaged 13.235 million barrels per day in 2024. Prior to this, annual U.S. field production of crude oil had never averaged 13 million barrels per day or more, the data revealed. The closest it came to an annual average of 13 million barrels per day was in 2023, at 12.943 million barrels per day, the data showed.
Another data page on the EIA website – which displays monthly U.S. field production of crude oil, was also last updated on August 29, and includes data from January 1920 to June 2025 – showed that monthly U.S. field production of crude oil has averaged 13 million barrels per day or more on 21 occasions. Four of these were seen in 2023, 11 came in 2024, and six were in 2025, the data page highlighted.
The EIA’s September STEO outlined that its Federal Gulf of America production figures comprise crude oil production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of America. It also highlighted that its Lower 48 states regional production figures are based on geographic regions and not geologic formations.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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