Nigeria’s 650,000 bpd Dangote Refinery faces a prolonged gasoline outage after reports that repairs to its catalytic cracking unit could take two to three months, far longer than the earlier two-week estimate. The refinery’s Residue Fluidized Catalytic Cracking Unit (RFCCU), the key gasoline-making unit, has been offline since August 29 following catalyst leaks, with Reuters citing IIR Energy analysis as saying that major equipment replacement is required, extending downtime into November.
Initially, reports suggested a quicker turnaround. Reuters cited sources expecting repairs of at least two weeks, while Daily Post Nigeria relayed Dangote officials indicating a restart by mid-September. The latest IIR assessment overturns those forecasts, suggesting the refinery’s most critical unit may remain idle for months.
Nigeria consumes over 50 million liters of gasoline daily, most of it previously imported through subsidy-laden cargoes. Dangote’s plant was designed to cut that dependence by supplying nearly all domestic demand while exporting surplus barrels to neighboring states. A two-to-three-month outage risks reopening the import gap, forcing the government and private marketers to source additional cargoes at elevated prices, undermining expectations of near-term energy security.
The disruption also carries regional implications. West African gasoline markets had anticipated supply from Lagos, but volumes will now be absent at a time of tighter balances. According to Oilprice, U.S. crude exports into OPEC’s backyard are already reshaping flows, yet refined product markets remain vulnerable. A prolonged RFCCU outage could tighten Atlantic Basin gasoline further, lifting crack spreads and deepening reliance on U.S. and European refiners to cover shortfalls.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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