OPEC crude production rose by about 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, reaching 28.55 million bpd, according to a Bloomberg survey published on Wednesday. Saudi Arabia accounted for just over half of the increase, restoring barrels previously curbed under voluntary cuts. The United Arab Emirates and Nigeria also contributed, while Libya managed modest gains as security conditions improved around key terminals.
The production rise comes as OPEC+ ministers are preparing to meet this Sunday, with speculation building that the alliance could authorize an additional increase beyond the already-scheduled unwinding of voluntary reductions. Those rumors pressured prices earlier this week, with Brent slipping as traders digested reports of a potential supply ramp-up.
Benchmark Brent crude was trading down 2.17%, at $67.64 per barrel, at 11:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday, while the U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading down 2.42% at $64.00 per barrel following the release of the Bloomberg survey.
The moves highlight market sensitivity to even modest shifts in OPEC output, particularly as inventories in the U.S. and Europe remain above seasonal averages.
Internal dynamics within OPEC+ are also in focus. Kazakhstan boosted its August production by more than 2% compared to July, stretching beyond its quota, while Iraq continued to lift exports despite ongoing disputes with the Kurdistan Regional Government, demonstrating the challenge of maintaining compliance as prices incentivize members to bring additional barrels to market.
With roughly 1.65 million bpd of voluntary curbs still on the books, according to OPEC+ agreements, the bloc retains a solid buffer of withheld supply. Saudi Arabia and Russia account for the bulk of these pledged reductions, while smaller portions are spread across Kuwait, the UAE, and Kazakhstan. The upcoming Sunday session will revisit how quickly those barrels might be reintroduced, and whether the pace should differ among members that have already been producing above target.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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