A former UN climate chief has urged the Australian government to set a greenhouse gas emissions reduction target of at least a 75% cut by 2035, backing calls from a group of more than 350 businesses that it would be better for the economy than a lower goal.
The intervention by Christiana Figueres, an architect of the 2015 Paris agreement when she was the executive secretary of the UN framework convention on climate change, comes before discussions about Australia’s commitment, due to be announced next month.
Cabinet is yet to receive formal advice from the Climate Change Authority, chaired by the former NSW Liberal treasurer Matt Kean. A decision on the target is expected before Anthony Albanese attends the UN general assembly in New York in late September.
A consultation paper by the authority last year – based on an initial assessment of scientific, economic, technological and social evidence – suggested a 2035 target of between 65% and 75% below 2005 levels “would be ambitious and could be achievable if additional action is taken by governments, business, investors and households”. Since then, the government has been lobbied about what target it should set.
Figueres said setting a target of a 75% or more reduction would be “not a burden”, but instead be “Australia’s ticket into the prosperity of the future”. She suggested the ambitious goal would increase Australia’s chance to win the rights to host a major UN climate summit in Adelaide in November 2026.
Australia continues to vie with Turkey for the right to host the Cop31 summit and it is unclear when that will be resolved under the UN’s consensus decision-making process.
“The new global economy is rising, powered by clean energy and green industry,” Figueres said. Australia can be at its heart, with unrivalled sun and wind, critical minerals and skilled labour ready to lead.
“Prime minister Albanese now has the chance to show the Pacific and the world that Australia is ready to lead at Cop31 and beyond.”
A report last week, commissioned by the Business for 75% group, which is backed by Future Group, Fortescue, Atlassian, Canva, Ikea and Unilever, suggested a 75% reduction target could lead to national GDP being $370bn greater by 2035 compared with current projections. It said the economic benefits of the more ambitious goal would be much greater than under a 65% target.
A separate report to be released on Monday by the research thinktank Climate Analytics suggests Australia should set a reduction target of about 81%, within a range of 76% to 89%, to align with the Paris agreement goal of limiting global heating since preindustrial times to 1.5C.
The Climate Analytics chief executive and senior scientist, Bill Hare, agreed with Figueres that other countries would be watching where Australia landed as they considered the government’s case that it should co-host Cop31 with Pacific Island countries.
Hare said multiple studies had found Australia could “get into the 75% range in terms of what is technically and economically feasible”. He said significant cost-effective emissions cuts were possible in several areas, and the main barriers to action were political.
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Some organisations lobbying the government have focused on an advisory opinion by the international court of justice that found countries had an obligation to take measures consistent with limiting global heating to 1.5C. They have argued it meant Australia should set a target of reaching net zero emissions by 2035 – a goal that many experts say it would not be logistically possible to meet.
Frank Jotzo, the director of the Australian National University’s Centre for Climate and Energy Policy and a government adviser on climate policy, said that even a reduction target in the 60s would be ambitious. He said the government should be ambitious but the policies to drive change were more important than the number.
Jotzo said Australia’s emissions reductions had been slow to date, and reaching a 65% reduction goal would require pollution levels to be halved in a decade. That was possible, he said, but would require substantial policies in areas where emissions have been rising or going sideways – particularly industry, transport and agriculture – and faster reductions than were happening in electricity.
“Whatever target gets adopted should have a path to implementation and should have a good chance of being perceived as possible,” he said.
Jotzo backed a suggestion by the climate change minister, Chris Bowen, that the government may set a target range, rather than a single number.
