(Bloomberg) – ExxonMobil said net zero goals for the global energy sector are likely to drift further beyond 2050 due to consumers pushing back against high costs and a revival in demand for coal, the most polluting fossil fuel.
Global emissions will fall by a quarter by 2050, far short of the more than two-thirds drop needed to meet Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change targets, Exxon said in its Global Energy Outlook published Thursday. The emissions forecast for mid-century is almost 4% higher than the oil major saw last year, as more coal is used to back up intermittent power from wind and solar and slowing electric vehicle sales in the US and Europe support oil demand.
“If the world tries to shove in some of these more expensive sources too fast, there will be a reaction from consumers,” Chris Birdsall, Exxon’s director of economic, energy and strategy planning, said on a call with reporters. “In democratic societies where there are elections, elections have consequences. We can see political changes that then can slow progress.”
America’s biggest oil company has often repeated that it sees a long future for fossil fuels and that the world isn’t on course for net zero by 2050. But in recent months it has become more outspoken against decarbonization policies that it claims raise the cost of supplying energy, especially in Europe.
Meanwhile, activists have criticized Exxon’s projections for being too pessimistic and said scenarios that show high future fossil fuel use can slow climate action — leaving the world to deal with dramatically higher temperatures and impacts including fiercer heat waves and wildfires, more intense rainfall and rising seas.
Oil demand will likely peak around 2030, then plateau and remain above 100 million barrels a day through 2050, Exxon said. The International Energy Agency forecasts oil demand to reach 104.4 million barrels a day in 2026, with growth slowing from historic levels.
The biggest change from last year’s Energy Outlook was coal consumption, which rose to a record 8.8 billion tons in 2024, according to the IEA. Despite many countries committing to phase out coal, Exxon sees the most polluting fossil fuel making 14% of the global energy mix by 2050, in part due to its ability to provide power when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining.
“We’re seeing the world use more coal into power generation and it’s a story of sinking power generation efficiency as coal plants are having to cycle to balance renewables,” Birdsall said.
Exxon also revised up its forecast for natural gas demand, which it sees increasing more than 20% by mid-century due to rising global power use.
