USA EIA Sees Production Outpacing Demand in 2025 and 2026

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that world petroleum and other liquid fuels production will come in higher than consumption both this year and next year in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on August 12.

In this STEO, the EIA projected that world petroleum and other liquid fuels production will average 105.36 million barrels per day in 2025 and 106.35 million barrels per day in 2026. Crude oil makes up 78.34 million barrels per day of the 2025 figure and 78.82 million barrels per day of the 2026 figure, the STEO highlighted. Other liquids make up 27.01 million barrels per day of this year’s total world petroleum and other liquid fuels production figure and 27.53 million barrels per day of next year’s total figure, the STEO pointed out.

The EIA projected that world petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption will average 103.72 million barrels per day this year and 104.91 million barrels per day next year in its August STEO.

This STEO highlighted that world petroleum and other liquid fuels production averaged 103.08 million barrels per day in 2024. It showed that world petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption averaged 102.74 million barrels per day last year. 

In its previous STEO, which was released in July, the EIA projected that world petroleum and other liquid fuels production would average 104.61 million barrels per day in 2025 and 105.72 million barrels per day in 2026.

That STEO forecast that crude oil would make up 77.66 million barrels per day of the total 2025 world petroleum and other liquid fuels production figure and 78.19 million barrels per day of the total 2026 figure. Other liquids were projected to make up 26.95 million barrels per day of this year’s total world petroleum and other liquid fuels production figure and 27.54 million barrels per day of next year’s total figure, that STEO pointed out.

In its July STEO, the EIA projected that world petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption would average 103.54 million barrels per day this year and 104.59 million barrels per day next year.

“The Brent crude oil price in our forecast declines significantly in the coming months, falling from $71 per barrel in July to $58 per barrel on average in the fourth quarter of 2025 and around $50 per barrel in early 2026,” the EIA said in its August STEO.

“The price forecast is driven largely by more oil inventory builds following OPEC+ members’ decision to accelerate the pace of production increases,” it added.

“We now expect global oil inventory builds will average more than two million barrels per day in 4Q25 and 1Q26, which is 0.8 million barrels per day more than in last month’s STEO,” it continued.

“Low oil prices in early 2026 will lead to a reduction in supply by both OPEC+ and some non-OPEC producers, which we expect will help moderate inventory builds later in 2026. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will average $51 per barrel next year, down from our forecast of $58 per barrel in last month’s STEO,” the EIA went on to state in its latest STEO.

In its STEOs, the EIA highlighted that its world petroleum and other liquid fuels production figures include crude oil, lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, refinery processing gain, and other unaccounted-for liquids. Differences in the reported historical production data across countries could result in some inconsistencies in the delineation between crude oil and other liquid fuels, the EIA noted in its STEOs.

The EIA also stated in its STEOs that consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is the same as ‘petroleum product supplied’, defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly (DOE/EIA-0109). Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is ‘apparent consumption’, which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering, the EIA added in its STEOs.

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