From a technical standpoint, crude continues to struggle with its 200-day moving average at $63.25. A sustained move above this level could force weaker shorts out of the market. Additional resistance sits at the 50% long-term retracement level of $64.56, followed by the 50-day moving average at $65.00.
On the downside, failure to hold support could escalate selling pressure. If last week’s low at $61.12 is broken with volume, prices could test the major support base at $56.09.
Refinery Outages Add to Support, but Demand Risks Loom
A secondary support factor emerged from operational disruptions at BP’s 440,000 bpd Whiting, Indiana refinery. Flooding after severe storms has impacted output at the facility, one of the Midwest’s key suppliers. While refinery issues can limit short-term crude demand, they often provide broader price support through tighter refined product markets.
Oil Prices Forecast: Cautiously Bullish Near-Term Outlook
With U.S. crude inventories falling and no immediate breakthrough in Ukraine diplomacy, the fundamental tone remains cautiously supportive. However, traders should keep a close eye on the $63.25 resistance level. A confirmed breakout above $65.00 would signal a momentum shift to the upside. Until then, the market remains technically neutral with a slight bullish bias.
