In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on August 12, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price will drop in 2025 and 2026.
The EIA projected in the STEO that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price will average $3.07 per gallon this year and $2.88 per gallon next year. In its previous STEO, which was released in July, the EIA saw the U.S. regular gasoline retail price averaging $3.09 per gallon in 2025 and $3.04 per gallon in 2026.
Both STEOs highlighted that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price came in at $3.31 per gallon in 2024.
A quarterly breakdown in the EIA’s latest STEO showed that the organization sees the U.S. regular gasoline retail price averaging $3.12 per gallon in the third quarter of this year, $2.91 per gallon in the fourth quarter, $2.72 per gallon in the first quarter of next year, $2.91 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.02 per gallon in the third quarter, and $2.87 per gallon in the fourth quarter.
In its July STEO, the EIA projected that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price would come in at $3.11 per gallon in the third quarter of this year, $2.99 per gallon in the fourth quarter, $2.93 per gallon in the first quarter of next year, $3.12 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.16 per gallon in the third quarter, and $2.96 per gallon in the fourth quarter.
“Lower crude oil prices will push down U.S. average retail gasoline prices to less than $3.00 per gallon next year,” the EIA said in its August STEO.
“We expect the retail gasoline price will average less than $2.90 per gallon next year, about 20 cents per gallon (six percent) less than this year,” it added.
“In most regions, we forecast prices to fall below $3.00 per gallon by the fourth quarter of this year and remain less than $3.00 per gallon during 2026,” it continued.
Current Gasoline Price
According to the AAA Fuel Prices website, the average regular gasoline price in the U.S. is $3.153 per gallon, as of August 15. Yesterday’s average was $3.160 per gallon, the week ago average was $3.156 per gallon, the month ago average was $3.150 per gallon, and the year ago average was $3.441 per gallon, the site showed.
The highest recorded average price for regular gasoline in the U.S. was seen on June 14, 2022, at $5.016 per gallon, the AAA Fuel Prices website pointed out.
GasBuddy’s live ticking average for regular gasoline in the U.S. was $3.158 per gallon as of 7.10am EST on August 15. The figure was 0.2 cents higher than yesterday’s average, 3.0 cents higher than last week’s average, 0.1 cent lower than last month’s average, and 27.7 cents lower than last year’s average, GasBuddy’s website highlighted.
The EIA’s latest gasoline fuel update, which was released on August 12, showed that the average U.S. regular gasoline price was $3.123 per gallon on July 28, $3.140 per gallon on August 4, and $3.118 per gallon on August 11. The August 11 price was $0.296 lower than the year ago price, the fuel update outlined.
What Do You Pay For?
In its latest fuel update, which pegged the U.S. regular gasoline retail price at $3.13 per gallon in June, the EIA outlined that 52 percent of that figure went towards crude oil costs, 16 percent went towards distribution and marketing costs, 16 percent went towards refining costs, and 16 percent went towards taxes.
In a gasoline fuel update released last month, which pinned the May 2025 regular gasoline retail price at $3.15 per gallon, the EIA showed that 50 percent of that total went towards crude oil costs, 17 percent went towards refining costs, 17 percent went towards distribution and marketing costs, and 16 percent went towards taxes.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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