Pressure on crude oil futures decreased and prices rebounded slightly, supported by news that the U.S. and China have extended their tariff truce.
That’s what Maria Agustina Patti, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness, said in a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Tuesday morning, adding that the 90-day pause on raising tariffs helped avoid an important increase in U.S. duties on Chinese goods and retaliatory tariffs from China.
“This has eased fears that worsening trade tensions would hurt economic activity and reduce fuel demand in the world’s two largest oil consumers,” Patti said in the analysis.
The Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness noted in the analysis, however, that “uncertainty remains ahead of a key meeting on August 15 between the U.S. and Russian presidents, aiming to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine”.
“A peace deal could limit the potential increase in crude prices as it would set aside the risk of additional disruption to Russian oil and could open the door for more supply on the market,” Patti said in the analysis.
“But if no deal is reached, tougher sanctions on Russian crude buyers could tighten supply, supporting prices,” Patti added.
Patti also stated in the analysis that traders could turn to new data releases to gauge demand levels.
“API and EIA crude inventory levels could affect the direction of the market while the market awaits the result of the U.S.-Russia peace talks,” Patti said.
In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on Monday, Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at the company, highlighted that U.S. President Donald Trump has invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to Alaska on August 15 to discuss Ukraine.
“This is not a deal which will be closed on Friday, but rather a start of a process,” Schieldrop said in the report.
“But Trump is very, very unlikely to slap sanctions on Russian oil while this process is ongoing. i.e. no disruption of Russian oil in sight,” he added.
Rigzone has contacted the White House and the Department of Information and Press of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment on Patti and Schieldrop’s statements. Rigzone has also contacted the State Council the People’s Republic of China, and the State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China for comment on Patti’s statement. At the time of writing, none of the above have responded to Rigzone.
A joint statement on the U.S.-China economic and trade meeting in Stockholm, which was posted on the White House website on Monday, said the U.S. “will continue to modify the application of the additional ad valorem rate of duty on articles of China (including articles of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macau Special Administrative Region) set forth in Executive Order 14257 of April 2, 2025, by suspending 24 percentage points of that rate for an additional period of 90 days, starting on August 12, 2025, while retaining the remaining ad valorem rate of 10 percent on those articles pursuant to the terms of said Order”.
“China will continue to (1) modify the application of the additional ad valorem rate of duty on articles of the United States set forth in the Announcement of the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council No. 4 of 2025, by suspending 24 percentage points of that rate for an additional period of 90 days, starting on August 12, 2025, while retaining the remaining additional ad valorem rate of 10 percent on those articles, and (2) adopt or maintain all necessary administrative measures to suspend or remove the non-tariff countermeasures taken against the United States as agreed in the Geneva Joint Statement,” the statement added.
The joint statement highlighted that the representative from the Chinese side for the Stockholm meeting was He Lifeng, Vice Premier of the State Council, and the representatives from the U.S. side were Scott Bessent, Secretary of Treasury, and Jamieson Greer, United States Trade Representative.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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