In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team late Monday, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up by 4.7 million barrels for the week ending July 25.
“This follows a 3.2 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing looser than our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.
“For this week’s crude balance, from refineries, we model a small increase in crude runs (+0.1 million barrels per day) following a strong print last week,” they added.
“Among net imports, we model a very large increase, with exports down (-0.6 million barrels per day) and imports up (+0.7 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they continued.
The strategists warned in the report that timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a small reduction (-0.1 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis this week,” the strategists went on to state in the report.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a small build in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks (+0.2 million barrels) this week,” they added.
The Macquarie strategists also highlighted in the report that, “among products”, they “look for small builds across the board (gasoline/ distillate/jet +0.3/+0.7/+0.1 million barrels)”.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.6 million barrels per day for the week ending July 25,” the strategists added in the report.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on July 23 and showed data for the week ending July 18, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, decreased by 3.2 million barrels from the week ending July 11 to the week ending July 18.
That report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 419.0 million barrels on July 18, 422.2 million barrels on July 11, and 436.5 million barrels on July 19, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 402.5 million barrels on July 18, 402.7 million barrels on July 11, and 374.4 million barrels on July 19, 2024, that EIA report revealed.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.653 billion barrels on July 18, the EIA report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were down 5.4 million barrels week on week and down 12.7 million barrels year on year, the report showed.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie Group on July 21, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be down by 5.6 million barrels for the week ending July 18.
“This follows a 3.9 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing significantly tighter than our expectations,” the strategists said in that report.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on July 30. It will include data for the week ending July 25.
The EIA weekly petroleum status report states that it provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products. In the report, the EIA describes itself as the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. It adds that the information in the report should be attributed to the EIA “and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other organization”.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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