The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed its latest U.S. regular gasoline retail price forecast in its July short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on July 8.
According to this STEO, the EIA sees the U.S. regular gasoline retail price averaging $3.09 per gallon in 2025 and $3.04 per gallon in 2026. In its previous STEO, which was released in June, the EIA projected that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price would come in at $3.09 per gallon this year and $3.08 per gallon next year.
The EIA’s latest STEO forecasts that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price will average $3.11 per gallon in the third quarter of this year, $2.99 per gallon in the fourth quarter, $2.93 per gallon in the first quarter of 2026, $3.12 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.16 per gallon in the third quarter, and $2.96 per gallon in the fourth quarter of 2026.
In its previous STEO, the EIA projected that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price would average $3.14 per gallon in the third quarter, $2.97 per gallon in the fourth quarter, $2.95 per gallon in the first quarter of next year, $3.17 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.21 per gallon in the third quarter, and $3.01 per gallon in the fourth quarter.
Current Prices
In its latest gasoline fuel update, which was released on July 15, the EIA showed that the U.S. regular gasoline price averaged $3.164 per gallon on June 30, $3.125 per gallon on July 7, and $3.130 per gallon on July 14. The July 14 price was $0.366 lower than the year ago price, the EIA fuel update outlined.
Of the five Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) regions highlighted in the EIA’s latest fuel update, the West Coast was shown to have the highest regular gasoline price as of July 14, at $4.041 per gallon. The Gulf Coast was shown in the update to have the lowest regular gasoline price as of July 14, at $2.738 per gallon.
A glossary section of the EIA site notes that the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia are divided into five districts, with PADD 1 further split into three subdistricts. PADDs 6 and 7 encompass U.S. territories, the site adds.
According to the AAA Fuel Prices website, the average U.S. regular gasoline price is $3.160 per gallon, as of July 16. Yesterday’s average was $3.150 per gallon, the week ago average was $3.162 per gallon, the month ago average was $3.140 per gallon, and the year ago average was $3.515 per gallon.
The highest recorded average price for regular gasoline in the U.S. was seen on June 14, 2022, at $5.016 per gallon, the AAA Fuel Prices website outlined.
What Do You Pay For?
The EIA’s latest fuel update, which pegged the May 2025 regular gasoline retail price at $3.15 per gallon, showed that 50 percent of that total went towards crude oil costs, 17 percent went towards refining costs, 17 percent went towards distribution and marketing costs, and 16 percent went towards taxes.
An EIA gasoline fuel update released last month, which pinned the retail price of regular gasoline at $3.17 per gallon in April, showed that 49 percent of that total went towards crude oil costs, 19 percent went towards distribution and marketing costs, 16 percent went towards taxes, and 16 percent went towards refining costs.
The EIA notes on its website that it collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. The AAA Fuel Prices website describes itself as a public service of the United States of America’s largest motoring and leisure travel membership organization. It is updated daily by Oil Price Information Service (OPIS), the site highlights.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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