While we should always be prepared for surprises in any market, especially oil, $100 crude appears increasingly unlikely this year.
That’s what Carole Nakhle, the Chief Executive Officer of London based consultancy Crystol Energy, told Rigzone in a recent exclusive interview when asked how likely $100 oil is in 2025.
“A major geopolitical development unfolded just weeks ago involving Iran, Israel, and the U.S., yet prices briefly touched the high $70s before quickly retreating once tensions eased,” Nakhle said.
“This happened despite entering peak driving season in the U.S. and a holiday period in many parts of the world,” Nakhle added.
“The lack of supply disruptions certainly played a role, but more importantly, it reflects the underlying market fundamentals: a well-supplied market facing weaker than expected demand, as global economic conditions continue to exert downward pressure on consumption,” Nakhle went on to state.
Rigzone has contacted the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson, Oren Marmorstein, and the White House for comment on Nakhle’s statements. At the time of writing, none of the above have responded to Rigzone.
Crystol Energy was founded in 2012 by Nakhle, the company’s site highlights. The site notes that Crystol’s “tailored advice, client-focused training, and bespoke research cover the whole spectrum of world energy markets, policy, and geopolitics”.
Nakhle is described on Crystol’s site as “an international authority on global energy issues, in particular in the fields of policy, finance, market development, governance, energy taxes, and fiscal regimes, as well as geopolitics”.
Oil Price Forecasts
In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on July 8, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that the Brent spot price will average $68.89 per barrel and the WTI spot price will average $65.22 per barrel in 2025.
The EIA sees the Brent spot price coming in at $68.02 per barrel in the third quarter of this year and $64.02 per barrel in the fourth quarter, according to the STEO, which showed that the organization is forecasting that the WTI spot price will average $64.69 per barrel in the third quarter and $60.02 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The Brent spot price averaged $80.56 per barrel last year and the WTI spot price averaged $76.60 per barrel in 2025, the EIA’s latest STEO highlighted.
A report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered Bank team on the same day showed that Standard Chartered sees the ICE Brent nearby future crude oil price averaging $61 per barrel and the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price averaging $58 per barrel this year.
In that report, Standard Chartered projected that the ICE Brent nearby future crude oil price will average $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year. The company forecast in the report that the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price will average $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on July 1 showed that J.P. Morgan was projecting that the Brent crude price will average $66 per barrel and the WTI crude price will average $63 per barrel in 2025.
In that research note, J.P. Morgan saw the Brent crude price averaging $63 per barrel in the third quarter and $61 per barrel in the fourth quarter. J.P. Morgan saw the WTI crude price coming in at $59 per barrel in the third quarter and $57 per barrel in the fourth quarter, that note showed.
The EIA states on its website that it collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.
Standard Chartered describes itself on its site as “a global bank connecting corporate, institutional and affluent clients to a network that offers unique access to sustainable growth opportunities across Asia, Africa and the Middle East”. J.P. Morgan describes itself on its site as a leading global financial services firm with assets of $3.9 trillion and operations worldwide.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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