The world will need as much as 19.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of new refining capacity by 2050 to meet rising global oil demand, OPEC said in its 2025 World Oil Outlook (WOO) with forecasts through the middle of the century.
Overall, OPEC expects global oil demand to continue rising by 2050, with global oil demand projected to increase by more than 19 million bpd between 2024 and 2050, reaching nearly 123 million bpd.
India, Other Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are set to be the primary sources of long-term oil demand growth. Combined demand in these four regions is set to increase by 22.4 million bpd between 2024 and 2050, with India alone adding 8.2 million bpd and being the single largest demand driver. Chinese demand growth is set to slow materially, while developed economies will see a decline in oil consumption by 2050.
However, emerging economies in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, as well as recent policy shifts and an improved economic outlook, will drive robust growth in the medium and long term, according to OPEC.
“There is no peak oil demand on the horizon,” the cartel’s Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais wrote in the foreword to the WOO published on Thursday.
As oil demand is set to grow, refining additions will be needed to meet said demand.
OPEC’s medium-term outlook sees around 5.8 million bpd of new refining capacity coming online by 2030, led by Asia-Pacific (3.2 million bpd), Africa (1.2 million bpd), and the Middle East (1 million bpd). These regions will account for more than 90% of the global refining capacity additions out to 2030.
The global annual average rate of capacity additions for the period from 2024–2030 is estimated at just below 1 million bpd, OPEC said.
Refining capacity is set to increase by another 7.3 million bpd between 2030 and 2035, due to growing demand in most developing regions.
Around 3 million bpd is set to be added between 2035 and 2040, and only 1.2 million bpd in the 2045-2050 period, according to OPEC’s forecasts.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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