“There is no peak oil demand on the horizon,” OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais wrote in the foreword of OPEC’s latest World Oil Outlook (WOO), which sees global oil demand growing by about 19% from now until 2050 to reach 123 million barrels per day (bpd).
In view of slowing Chinese demand growth, OPEC revised down its oil demand growth forecasts for all years between 2025 and 2029.
However, global economic development with growing demand for oil and an increasing global population and middle class are set to underpin demand growth in the coming decades.
OPEC reiterated its view that there is no peak oil demand in sight and the world will see continued rising consumption for decades.
India will lead global oil demand growth through 2050, boosting consumption by 8.2 million bpd between 2025 and 2020. The Middle East and Africa will also be key demand growth drivers, according to OPEC’s view.
Moreover, oil demand will also be supported by U.S. President Donald Trump’s exit from the Paris Agreement.
“The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will impact climate change negotiations and would most likely result in higher demand for hydrocarbons in general, and oil and gas in particular,” OPEC said in the World Oil Outlook as cited by Bloomberg.
“Continued, and even marginally higher, oil demand in the US is to be expected over the medium-term period.”
OPEC’s view that there is no peak oil demand on the horizon contrasts with forecasts from the industry and the International Energy Agency (IEA). Many of the largest oil firms see demand plateauing at some point next decade, while the IEA has just doubled down on its narrative that a peak in global oil demand is still on the horizon.
Global oil demand is forecast to rise by 2.5 million bpd from 2024 to 2030, reaching a plateau around 105.5 million bpd by the end of the decade, per the IEA’s annual Oil 2025 report for the medium term.
Annual global growth will slow from about 700,000 bpd in 2025 and 2026 “to just a trickle over the next several years, with a small decline expected in 2030, based on today’s policy settings and market trends,” the IEA said.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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