Oil held steady as traders grappled with conflicting signals about how much US military strikes hobbled Iran’s nuclear program and whether Washington will continue to target Tehran’s oil flows.
West Texas Intermediate edged up to settle near near $65 a barrel while Brent closed little changed near $68. WTI had climbed as much as 2.3% earlier after the Financial Times reported that European capitals believe that Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile remain largely intact following US strikes. President Donald Trump, in a social media post, denied reports that Iran successfully moved nuclear material from its sites before the attacks.
At the same time, an Iranian law to suspend cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog came into effect.
Prices eased off intraday highs after CNN reported that Washington has discussed offering incentives to restart talks with Iran, including possibly easing sanctions. At a news conference on Wednesday, Trump indicated that US financial penalties are doing little to stop China from buying Iran’s supplies, contradicting earlier comments that he’s “not giving up” on a strategy of targeting Tehran’s petrodollars.
“If they’re going to sell oil, they’re going to sell oil,” Trump said. “China is going to want to buy oil. They can buy it from us. They can buy it from other people.”
In another headwind, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that there are no imminent plans to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. She also said there were no plans for nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran and reiterated that the US destroyed Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
The developments highlight the fragility of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, with traders still on edge over potential disruptions to energy supplies from the Middle East. Still, the large geopolitical risk premium in the market only a few sessions ago has mostly deflated, with oil posting the biggest two-day decline since 2022 early this week. One gauge of implied volatility fell to the lowest since June 10, just before Israel launched its aerial campaign against Iran.
The focus now turns to an OPEC+ meeting planned for July 6 that will decide on production policy for August. Russia is open to another output hike if the alliance deems an increase to be necessary, according to a person familiar with the matter.
“Markets appear to assess that geopolitical risks have subsided significantly, though the path forward still could be rocky,” said Francesco Martoccia, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. “The fundamental bearish backdrop for oil, especially post 3Q ’25, could come back into focus even as OPEC+ sets up to meet in early July to decide on how much oil to bring back in August.”
Oil Prices
WTI for August delivery climbed 0.5% to settle at $65.24 a barrel in New York.
Brent for August settlement was little changed to settle at $67.73 a barrel.
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