The UK’s schools, care homes and offices are not equipped for the effects of global heating and face lengthy heatwaves even in optimistic scenarios, according to a groundbreaking report that calls for climate resilience to be declared a national emergency.
The report by the UK Green Building Council also predicts that towns including Peterborough and Fairbourne will be uninhabitable by the end of the century because of flooding.
Produced over two years, the roadmap sets out a blueprint for action and warns that without the adaptation of millions of buildings, there will be increased injury, health impacts, deaths and untold economic damage.
Five key threats are examined by the roadmap: overheating, wildfires, flooding, drought and storms.
Detailed thermodynamic modelling on school buildings reveals that schools across London and the south-east will face 10 weeks of extreme heat a year – defined as 28C and above – in a low-warming scenario, defined as 2C above preindustrial levels. The world is on track for 2.7C of heating.
The roadmap modelling warns that 6m houses and flats in London and the south-east will face three weeks above 28C a year in the same low-warming scenario, causing economic damage from reduced productivity of employees, and health threats to vulnerable and older people.
Care homes in London and the south-east, where residents are extremely vulnerable, will be face temperatures above 28C for four weeks a year in the low-warming scenario, the roadmap predicts.
Ordinary offices where the productivity of millions of workers is key to economic growth, are also woefully underprepared for the onslaught of extreme weather now and in the years to come, the report says. The modelling says modern buildings are more vulnerable to overheating than older ones because they have larger areas of glass and are of a more lightweight construction.
Adaptation measures for buildings could include the use of solar shading and replacing regular glass with solar glass. So-called passive adaptation is recommended before things such as air conditioning, which increase energy usage and emissions.
“It is within our power to design buildings and cities that are safer, more comfortable and resilient to the impacts of the changing climate, and it is vitally important that we act now to do so,” the roadmap says.
The report, which is launched on Thursday, calls for:
The appointment of a minister for resilience within the Cabinet Office
A new legal objective to ensure all planning decisions deliver climate safety.
A more ambitious future homes standard to protect against increasing climate hazards – overheating, flooding and water scarcity.
A comprehensive retrofit strategy to make homes and buildings climate safe.
The protection of all communities with trees, parks and ponds.
The government’s new planning and infrastructure bill does not include a mandate to make buildings climate safe from overheating, flooding, wildfires or droughts. It has been criticised for placing too much emphasis on growth rather than the green environment.
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London tops a list of the cities and towns most vulnerable to wildfires, drought and flooding, with Birmingham and Manchester second and third most at risk, according to the analysis.
The flood impact on the town of Peterborough will make it uninhabitable by the end of the century, the analysis says. In Wales, the town of Fairbourne, which sits between Snowdon (Yr Wyddfa) and the Irish Sea, will also be uninhabitable as a result of flooding and sea-level rises.
Simon McWhirter, the chief executive of the UK Green Building Council, said the roadmap starkly illustrated the threats of a changing climate and said the response could not be delayed.
Calling for the appointment of a minister for resilience within the Cabinet Office, he said: “The UK is not ready for the extreme weather events of today, even less so for the hotter, wetter and wilder climate that is already racing down the track at us. Our homes, schools, hospitals, parks and offices are on the frontline, protecting and nurturing us. We need a fundamental rethink … if we are to help protect people and our way of life.”
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