Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor and Vikas Dwivedi, are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be down by 0.9 million barrels for the week ending June 20, an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team late Monday revealed.
“This follows an 11.5 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing significantly tighter than our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.
“For this week’s crude balance, from refineries, we model a small reduction in crude runs (-0.1 million barrels per day). Among net imports, we model a sharp increase, with exports significantly lower (-0.6 million barrels per day) and imports significantly higher (+0.7 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they added.
Timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance, the strategists noted in the report.
“From implied domestic supply (prod. +adj.+transfers), we look for a small nominal increase (+0.1 million barrels per day) this week. Rounding out the picture, we anticipate another small increase in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks (+0.2 million barrels) this week,” they added.
“Among products, we look for yet another week of builds led by gasoline (+1.5 million barrels) and distillate (+1.1 million barrels), with jet stocks modestly higher (+0.3 million barrels),” they continued.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.2 million barrels per day for the week ending June 20,” the Macquarie strategists went on to state in the report.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on June 18 and included data for the week ending June 13, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, decreased by 11.5 million barrels from the week ending June 6 to the week ending June 13.
That EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 420.9 million barrels on June 13, 432.4 million barrels on June 6, and 457.1 million barrels on June 14, 2024.
“At 420.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 10 percent below the five year average for this time of year,” the EIA noted in the report.
Crude oil in the SPR stood at 402.3 million barrels on June 13, 402.1 million barrels on June 6, and 370.9 million barrels on June 14, 2024, the report revealed. Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.637 billion barrels on June 13, the report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were down 6.4 million barrels week on week and down 21.6 million barrels year on year, the report showed.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on June 16, Macquarie strategists revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be down by 6.5 million barrels for the week ending June 13.
“This follows a 3.6 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing looser than our expectations despite another week of strong refinery runs,” the strategists noted in that report.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on June 25. It will include data for the week ending June 20. The EIA report states that it provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products. In the report, the EIA describes itself as the independent statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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